Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-07 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-07-07
0 activated plays
Gap rows 279
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-07-08 Older: 2026-07-06

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-10-17 2026-10-16 2026-10-15 2026-10-14 2026-10-13 2026-10-12 2026-10-11 2026-10-10

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Trea Turner

Strong

PHI vs CIN | Andrew Abbott

Value Score 37.7
Odds / Gap +555 / +7.11%
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.076x

Value Rank #2

Adolis García

Lean

PHI vs CIN | Andrew Abbott

Value Score 25.3
Odds / Gap +440 / +2.65%
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.076x

Value Rank #3

Freddie Freeman

Lean

LAD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen

Value Score 24.9
Odds / Gap +495 / +3.96%
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.957x

Value Rank #4

Riley Greene

Lean

DET vs ATH | J.t. Ginn

Value Score 23.3
Odds / Gap +445 / +2.51%
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.998x

Value Rank #5

Josh Naylor

Lean

SEA vs MIA | Max Meyer

Value Score 21.8
Odds / Gap +495 / +3.51%
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.998x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +775 / U -1155
+8.12%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1225
+7.99%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+7.99%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+7.38%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+7.22%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+7.22%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+7.11%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
+7.00%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+7.00%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+7.08%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+6.96%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+6.96%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.61%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.61%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.90%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.43%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.40%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -340
+6.40%
25.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -365
+5.18%
24.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-9.64%
26.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+5.73%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+5.57%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+5.49%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+5.66%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1090
+5.59%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+5.59%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs ATL | Hurston Waldrep | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+5.54%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.54%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.44%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Mountcastle headshot

Ryan Mountcastle
BAL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+5.51%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+5.39%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+5.39%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+5.45%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+5.33%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+5.33%
11.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs ATL | Hurston Waldrep | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.40%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+5.31%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.31%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs ATL | Hurston Waldrep | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+5.28%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+5.22%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+5.15%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+5.17%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+5.01%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+4.96%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+4.98%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+4.98%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.90%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.93%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.81%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.81%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+4.84%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+4.84%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.84%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+4.61%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+4.53%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.53%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+4.60%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+4.46%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+4.41%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.5
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+4.51%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+4.41%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.41%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+4.13%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+3.98%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+3.98%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+4.12%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+4.12%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.12%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+4.10%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+4.00%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+4.00%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.06%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+3.99%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+3.99%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.96%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.82%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+3.68%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+3.95%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+3.84%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.84%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+3.82%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+3.82%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+3.82%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.70%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.58%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.58%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+3.62%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+3.62%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+3.62%
12.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+3.53%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.40%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.26%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.51%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.37%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.37%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+3.31%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+3.31%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.22%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.24%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -335
+3.24%
25.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +290 / U -365
+1.76%
24.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-6.22%
26.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+3.18%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+3.02%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+2.97%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.7
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+3.00%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+2.89%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+2.89%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+2.90%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+2.76%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+2.61%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+2.87%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+2.75%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+2.75%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+2.84%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+2.84%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+2.84%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.81%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.81%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.81%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.74%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+2.74%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
+1.49%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-5.79%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+2.73%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+2.65%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+2.65%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+2.65%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+2.48%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+2.30%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.56%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.43%
16.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+2.30%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+2.54%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.41%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.41%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.51%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.35%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+2.19%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+2.51%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+2.42%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+2.42%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+2.51%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+2.34%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+2.17%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+2.44%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+1.16%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-5.50%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+2.37%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+2.28%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+2.28%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+2.34%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.17%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+2.00%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.11%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.99%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.99%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+1.91%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.77%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.63%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+1.87%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+1.77%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+1.77%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+1.86%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+1.68%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
+1.50%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+1.84%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+0.85%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-5.13%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.70%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.70%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.55%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.40%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+1.48%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
+1.35%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.35%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -385
+1.18%
23.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -415
-0.02%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +320 / U --
-4.37%
23.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.09%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.59%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.59%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.4
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+0.95%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.65%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+0.65%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.88%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.11%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-4.17%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+0.85%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+0.64%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.43%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.81%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+0.63%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.45%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1605
+0.77%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+0.64%
9.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1695
+0.59%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.4
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.62%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.37%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-3.91%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+0.54%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+0.39%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.39%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.37%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.20%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+0.02%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.30%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.30%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.30%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.3
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
+0.18%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.00%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.19%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+0.10%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-0.05%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-0.21%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +785 / U -1180
+0.02%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1250
-0.11%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
-0.11%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.01%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.18%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-0.35%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs DET | Tarik Skubal | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.13%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.18%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-3.11%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
-0.15%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.28%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
-0.41%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
-0.16%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-0.44%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-0.44%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
-0.24%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
-0.38%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
-0.52%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.2
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-0.35%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-0.55%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-0.76%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-0.47%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.61%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.61%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.50%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.44%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.86%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.51%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.56%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.73%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.56%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.56%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.56%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.57%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.74%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.92%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.58%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.54%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.81%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
-0.65%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.84%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
-1.03%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.80%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.98%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-1.16%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.94%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.77%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.42%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-0.99%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-1.84%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-2.43%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.23%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -575
-1.89%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-2.07%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.24%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.46%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.69%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs ATL | Hurston Waldrep | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.25%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.25%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.25%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.7
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs ATL | Hurston Waldrep | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.31%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.52%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.73%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.46%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-1.70%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-1.89%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs ATL | Hurston Waldrep | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.51%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.62%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.84%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 497
Latest Date 2026-10-17
Latest Signals 0
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-10-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 15 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 6
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 15 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 3
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 24 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 3 / 10
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Christian Yelich | 19.3
 --
Signals --
2026-10-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 9 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 0
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 15 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 3 / 3
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 24 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 4 / 11
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Christian Yelich | 22.5
 --
Signals --
2026-10-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 27 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 1 / 6
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 27 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 6 / 5
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%