Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 32 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 190 lb |
| Debut | 2016-07-25 |
Player profile / Chicago Cubs
Alex Bregman
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 190 lb · Age 32
Club Chicago Cubs
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 634 | 79 | 151 | 26 | 3 | .260 | .315 | .453 | .768 |
| 2025 | 495 | 64 | 118 | 18 | 1 | .273 | .360 | .462 | .822 |
| 2026 | 702 | 92 | 161 | 28 | 3 | .265 | .355 | .464 | .819 |
| 11 Seasons | 6029 | 850 | 1411 | 237 | 46 | .271 | .364 | .479 | .843 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
51
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.323 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.327 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.326 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.307
0.316
0.326
0.336
0.345
wOBA
0.358
0.369
0.381
0.393
0.404
ISO
0.184
0.194
0.205
0.216
0.226
K%
12.8%
13.6%
14.4%
15.2%
16.0%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
53
Exit velocity88.4
56
Hard-hit%38.5%
52
xBA0.303
32
xSLG0.470
40
xwOBA0.327
75
BB%10.7%
76
+20 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
32
K%14.6%
90
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.7 · 3B
12
Outs Above Avg9.0 · 3B
94
Range Runs6.5 · 3B
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 3B
39
Sprint Speed26.2 · 3B
21
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.3% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research
33
Correct Decisions68.7% · rebadged research
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.322 · borderline
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.323 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · insufficient sample
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.000 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.054 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Bregman’s wOBA sits at 0.381, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.327 — a gap of 0.054, -2.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 713 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L | 0.75 | Whiff rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Mead, Curtis WSH · R | 0.73 | Pull rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Tucker, Kyle LAD · L | 0.71 | Avg exit velocityChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Ramírez, José CLE · L | 0.68 | xwOBA on contactSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 9 | 2026-09-27 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 28 | 2026-09-18 | 3 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.444 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.327 xwOBA | 20 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs STL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2 2B, K |
| 2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | K, R |
| 2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | BB, 3 K, R |