Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 23 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 195 lb |
| Debut | 2024-03-20 |
Player profile / San Diego Padres
Jackson Merrill
CF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 195 lb · Age 23
Club San Diego Padres
Position CF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 593 | 77 | 162 | 24 | 16 | .292 | .326 | .500 | .826 |
| 2025 | 483 | 59 | 116 | 16 | 1 | .264 | .317 | .457 | .774 |
| 2026 | 664 | 86 | 156 | 26 | 27 | .254 | .303 | .440 | .743 |
| 3 Seasons | 1740 | 222 | 434 | 66 | 44 | .270 | .315 | .465 | .780 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
90
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.369 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.347 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.352 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.332
0.342
0.352
0.363
0.373
wOBA
0.315
0.326
0.338
0.350
0.361
ISO
0.167
0.177
0.188
0.198
0.208
K%
21.1%
22.0%
23.0%
24.0%
24.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.3%
90
Exit velocity90.8
87
Hard-hit%48.9%
92
xBA0.365
92
xSLG0.665
92
xwOBA0.347
90
BB%6.1%
24
Bat speed71.5
77
K%23.9%
45
-26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs6.3 · CF
99
Arm Strength100.2 · CF
93
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
96
Range Runs5.4 · CF
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.5 · CF
97
Bolts21.0 · CF
75
SB Success Rate85.0% · CF
63
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.6% · rebadged research
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.9% · rebadged research
90
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.253 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
16
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
91
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
14
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
298 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.025 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.033 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Merrill’s wOBA sits at 0.338, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.347 — a gap of 0.009, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 683 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schmitt, Casey SF · R | 0.68 | Swing lengthMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Riley, Austin ATL · R | 0.68 | Oppo rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Langeliers, Shea ATH · R | 0.68 | Oppo rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Abrams, CJ WSH · L | 0.67 | Strikeout rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 13 | 2026-09-12 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 29 | 2026-09-25 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +2.836 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.371 xwOBA | 19 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | 2 K |
| 2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 vs SEA0 HR | 2 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2B, K, 2 RBI |
| 2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 2B, 2 R, SB |