Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-06 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-07-06
0 activated plays
Gap rows 201
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-07-07 Older: 2026-07-05

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-10-17 2026-10-16 2026-10-15 2026-10-14 2026-10-13 2026-10-12 2026-10-11 2026-10-10

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Strong

WSH vs HOU | Mike Burrows

Value Score 34.8
Odds / Gap +590 / +7.08%
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.021x

Value Rank #2

Ezequiel Tovar

Strong

COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer

Value Score 33.9
Odds / Gap +645 / +7.29%
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.951x

Value Rank #3

Ozzie Albies

Play

ATL vs NYM | Freddy Peralta

Value Score 31.0
Odds / Gap +615 / +6.72%
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.084x

Value Rank #4

Trea Turner

Play

PHI vs KC | Noah Cameron

Value Score 28.1
Odds / Gap +555 / +5.71%
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.001x

Value Rank #5

Mookie Betts

Lean

LAD vs COL | Kyle Freeland

Value Score 21.2
Odds / Gap +505 / +3.65%
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.951x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+7.29%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+7.20%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+7.20%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.3
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+7.08%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+6.97%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+6.97%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+7.02%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+6.95%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.95%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+6.75%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+6.64%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+6.64%
10.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.72%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.72%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.63%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+6.62%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+6.55%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+6.55%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.61%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +240 / U -285
+6.61%
28.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +250 / U -310
+5.03%
27.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +245 / U --
-9.63%
29.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+6.54%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+6.54%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+6.46%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +775 / U -1155
+6.53%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1225
+6.40%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.40%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+6.40%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+6.40%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+6.31%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+6.40%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+6.30%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+6.24%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.8
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+6.14%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+6.07%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.07%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+5.99%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+5.88%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+5.83%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.2
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+5.71%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
+5.60%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+5.60%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.42%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+5.33%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.33%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+5.38%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+5.23%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+5.23%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.50%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -335
+4.50%
25.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +290 / U -365
+3.02%
24.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-7.48%
26.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+4.24%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+4.24%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.16%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+4.18%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+4.08%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.08%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+3.90%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+3.79%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+3.73%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.3
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+3.88%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+3.74%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+3.69%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+3.82%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+3.82%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.82%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.80%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.68%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.68%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.76%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.64%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.64%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+3.65%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+3.51%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+3.37%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.54%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.41%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.41%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.52%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.39%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.27%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.8
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -720
+3.42%
15.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +510 / U -675
+3.29%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.29%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+3.39%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+3.39%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.39%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andy Pages headshot

Andy Pages
LAD vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +2.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+2.96%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+2.96%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.96%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.93%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.93%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.93%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.88%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+2.58%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+2.58%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+2.75%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.62%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+2.49%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.61%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.53%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.53%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -865
+2.59%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -920
+2.59%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.49%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.54%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.40%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.40%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+2.44%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+2.29%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.29%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1405
+2.41%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1485
+2.25%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+2.25%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+2.37%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+1.38%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-5.66%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+2.30%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+2.17%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.17%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+2.01%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.84%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+1.67%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 2.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.90%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.40%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-5.40%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.6
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+1.65%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+1.32%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.32%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+1.60%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+1.51%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+1.51%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+1.59%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+1.45%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+1.40%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+1.46%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.31%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.31%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.39%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.23%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.06%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+1.29%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+1.12%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+0.94%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+1.08%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.62%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.38%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+1.07%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+0.70%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.70%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -575
+0.95%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+0.77%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -540
+0.59%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.59%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.41%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
+0.23%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+0.31%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+0.14%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.14%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.14%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.04%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.22%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+0.13%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+0.00%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+0.00%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
+0.13%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
-0.01%
16.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
-0.15%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.14%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.14%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.14%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.5
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-0.24%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.45%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.67%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.41%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.58%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
-0.76%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-0.45%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.59%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.59%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
-0.56%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.75%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
-0.94%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.63%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.50%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.66%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.75%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.75%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.75%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.5
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.03%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.34%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.34%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.25%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.56%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.56%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.36%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.85%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-2.00%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.56%
20.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.57%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.78%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 497
Latest Date 2026-10-17
Latest Signals 0
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-10-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 15 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 6
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 15 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 3
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 24 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 3 / 10
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Christian Yelich | 19.3
 --
Signals --
2026-10-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 9 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 0
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 15 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 3 / 3
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 24 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 4 / 11
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Christian Yelich | 22.5
 --
Signals --
2026-10-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 27 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 1 / 6
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-10-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 27 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 6 / 5
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%