Free-source markets • Anchor readiness • Line shopping
Market Watch
Before judging a number, inspect the market behind it.
Market Watch separates consensus-backed rows from sparse single-book rows. The goal is not to declare something mispriced; it is to decide whether the market is strong enough to support that conversation.
Snapshot
20260927
1%
consensus-backed
Tracked
2506
Anchor-ready
19
Input rows
2537
Updated
2026-09-27 11:56 UTC
Consensus proxy 19
Single-book only 35
Insufficient 2452
Sparse rows still matter for price shopping. They should not be treated as proof of closing-line value.
Lane Health
2026-09-27
Palantir
21810 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Fangorn
21810 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.005
14d error falling
Valinor
16122 props
Brier 0.114
ECE 0.002
14d stable
Palantir
1972 props
Brier 0.248
ECE 0.011
14d error falling
Fangorn
53 props
Brier 0.257
ECE 0.119
sample building
Valinor
1468 props
Brier 0.248
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Palantir
10537 props
Brier 0.239
ECE 0.041
14d error rising
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
850 props
Brier 0.166
ECE 0.036
14d stable
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
1097 props
Brier 0.255
ECE 0.052
14d stable
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Rolling Accountability
Recent Market Quality
How often the free-source market has enough book coverage to support a cautious consensus-style anchor.
Days covered
30
| Date | Tracked | Anchor-Ready | Consensus Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20260927 | 2506 | 19 | 0.8% |
| 20260926 | 1524 | 15 | 1.0% |
| 20260925 | 1703 | 22 | 1.3% |
| 20260924 | 1549 | 22 | 1.4% |
| 20260923 | 1584 | 24 | 1.5% |
| 20260922 | 1305 | 30 | 2.3% |
| 20260921 | 272 | 5 | 1.8% |
Structure Report
Which prop lanes are healthiest?
Each lane is judged by source depth, current consensus rate, and stability versus its recent average.
Prop Lane
Strikeouts
15%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Total Bases
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Hits
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Home Run
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Pitcher Outs
0%
latest consensus rate
Coverage Mix
Tracked market families
The page is only as strong as the markets it can see. This mix keeps coverage limits visible.
Anchor-Ready
Consensus-Proxy Markets
These rows have enough complete free-source book coverage to support a cautious CLV-style anchor.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Anthony Kay
CWS vs COL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 58.2% Under 41.8% |
-142
FanDuel | Spread +33
|
+130
BetMGM | Spread +18
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
DJ Herz
WSH vs NYM
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 48.1% Under 51.9% |
-102
FanDuel | Spread +8
|
-120
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Dean Kremer
MIN vs TEX
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 52.7% Under 47.3% |
-115
BetMGM | Spread +36
|
+118
DraftKings | Spread +233
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs STL
|
Strikeouts 6.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 52.4% Under 47.6% |
-111
FanDuel | Spread +29
|
+105
BetMGM | Spread +220
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Janson Junk
MIA vs ATL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.1% Under 53.9% |
+115
BetMGM | Spread +225
|
-115
DraftKings | Spread +40
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Kyle Freeland
COL vs CWS
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.7% Under 57.3% |
+124
DraftKings | Spread +19
|
-140
BetMGM | Spread +19
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs MIN
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 45.0% Under 55.0% |
+114
FanDuel | Spread +12
|
-130
DraftKings | Spread +16
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Max Scherzer
TOR vs CIN
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 43.6% Under 56.4% |
+120
FanDuel | Spread +15
|
-140
BetMGM | Spread +14
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Nick Martinez
TB vs PHI
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.3% Under 44.7% |
-138
DraftKings | Spread +4
|
+112
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Parker Messick
CLE vs KC
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.9% Under 42.1% |
-147
DraftKings | Spread +18
|
+125
BetMGM | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Sean Manaea
NYM vs WSH
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.0% Under 47.0% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+102
FanDuel | Spread +207
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Zack Wheeler
PHI vs TB
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 56.9% Under 43.1% |
-146
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
+116
FanDuel | Spread +2
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Andre Pallante
STL vs MIL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings
|
Over 59.2% Under 40.8% |
-160
BetMGM | Spread +8
|
+132
DraftKings | Spread +12
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Daniel Lynch IV
KC vs CLE
|
Strikeouts 2.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings
|
Over 58.3% Under 41.7% |
-150
BetMGM | Spread +20
|
+132
DraftKings | Spread +22
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
JR Ritchie
ATL vs MIA
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.3% Under 53.7% |
+108
FanDuel | Spread +211
|
-124
DraftKings | Spread +14
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jared Jones
PIT vs DET
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, FanDuel
|
Over 56.5% Under 43.5% |
-140
BetMGM | Spread +16
|
+122
FanDuel | Spread +17
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Logan Gilbert
SEA vs LAA
|
Strikeouts 7.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings
|
Over 45.6% Under 54.4% |
+114
DraftKings | Spread +219
|
-125
BetMGM | Spread +21
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Shane Baz
BAL vs NYY
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, FanDuel
|
Over 42.5% Under 57.5% |
+124
FanDuel | Spread +14
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Yusei Kikuchi
LAA vs SEA
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings
|
Over 42.5% Under 57.5% |
+124
DraftKings | Spread +14
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +8
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
Shopping Lane
Line-Shop Only Markets
These rows can still help with shopping prices, but they should not be treated as honest CLV anchors yet.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Dean Kremer
MIN vs TEX
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 52.7% Under 47.3% |
-115
BetMGM | Spread +36
|
+118
DraftKings | Spread +233
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Janson Junk
MIA vs ATL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.1% Under 53.9% |
+115
BetMGM | Spread +225
|
-115
DraftKings | Spread +40
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs STL
|
Strikeouts 6.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 52.4% Under 47.6% |
-111
FanDuel | Spread +29
|
+105
BetMGM | Spread +220
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Logan Gilbert
SEA vs LAA
|
Strikeouts 7.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings
|
Over 45.6% Under 54.4% |
+114
DraftKings | Spread +219
|
-125
BetMGM | Spread +21
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
JR Ritchie
ATL vs MIA
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.3% Under 53.7% |
+108
FanDuel | Spread +211
|
-124
DraftKings | Spread +14
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Sean Manaea
NYM vs WSH
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.0% Under 47.0% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+102
FanDuel | Spread +207
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Anthony Kay
CWS vs COL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 58.2% Under 41.8% |
-142
FanDuel | Spread +33
|
+130
BetMGM | Spread +18
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Daniel Lynch IV
KC vs CLE
|
Strikeouts 2.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings
|
Over 58.3% Under 41.7% |
-150
BetMGM | Spread +20
|
+132
DraftKings | Spread +22
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Kyle Freeland
COL vs CWS
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.7% Under 57.3% |
+124
DraftKings | Spread +19
|
-140
BetMGM | Spread +19
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Parker Messick
CLE vs KC
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.9% Under 42.1% |
-147
DraftKings | Spread +18
|
+125
BetMGM | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jared Jones
PIT vs DET
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, FanDuel
|
Over 56.5% Under 43.5% |
-140
BetMGM | Spread +16
|
+122
FanDuel | Spread +17
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs MIN
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 45.0% Under 55.0% |
+114
FanDuel | Spread +12
|
-130
DraftKings | Spread +16
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Max Scherzer
TOR vs CIN
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 43.6% Under 56.4% |
+120
FanDuel | Spread +15
|
-140
BetMGM | Spread +14
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Shane Baz
BAL vs NYY
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, FanDuel
|
Over 42.5% Under 57.5% |
+124
FanDuel | Spread +14
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Yusei Kikuchi
LAA vs SEA
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings
|
Over 42.5% Under 57.5% |
+124
DraftKings | Spread +14
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +8
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Andre Pallante
STL vs MIL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
2/2 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings
|
Over 59.2% Under 40.8% |
-160
BetMGM | Spread +8
|
+132
DraftKings | Spread +12
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Zack Wheeler
PHI vs TB
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 56.9% Under 43.1% |
-146
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
+116
FanDuel | Spread +2
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
DJ Herz
WSH vs NYM
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 48.1% Under 51.9% |
-102
FanDuel | Spread +8
|
-120
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Nick Martinez
TB vs PHI
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.3% Under 44.7% |
-138
DraftKings | Spread +4
|
+112
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Anthony Kay
--
|
Strikeouts 3.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 51.6% Under 48.4% |
-120
FanDuel
|
-106
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Brandon Williamson
CIN vs TOR
|
Strikeouts 2.5
1/1 complete books | DraftKings
|
Over 55.9% Under 44.1% |
-142
DraftKings
|
+112
DraftKings
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Brandon Williamson
CIN vs TOR
|
Strikeouts 3.5
1/1 complete books | BetMGM
|
Over 35.2% Under 64.8% |
+155
BetMGM
|
-210
BetMGM
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
DJ Herz
--
|
Strikeouts 4.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 47.4% Under 52.6% |
-102
FanDuel
|
-125
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Dean Kremer
--
|
Pitcher Outs 15.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 49.3% Under 50.7% |
-112
FanDuel
|
-118
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Dean Kremer
--
|
Strikeouts 4.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 50.5% Under 49.5% |
-115
FanDuel
|
-111
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Elmer Rodriguez
--
|
Pitcher Outs 14.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 47.4% Under 52.6% |
-106
FanDuel
|
-130
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Elmer Rodriguez
--
|
Strikeouts 5.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 41.5% Under 58.5% |
+124
FanDuel
|
-158
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
JR Ritchie
--
|
Pitcher Outs 14.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 53.3% Under 46.7% |
-132
FanDuel
|
-102
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
JR Ritchie
ATL vs MIA
|
Strikeouts 3.5
1/1 complete books | BetMGM
|
Over 63.4% Under 36.6% |
-200
BetMGM
|
+145
BetMGM
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
JR Ritchie
--
|
Strikeouts 4.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 44.9% Under 55.1% |
+108
FanDuel
|
-138
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |