Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	143	22	30	6	.234	.308	.430	.738
2025	422	56	117	14	.316	.393	.489	.882
2026	668	73	159	22	.274	.358	.434	.792
5 Seasons	1423	174	341	46	.274	.357	.438	.795

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

83

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

72

Defense3 metrics

67

Speed2 metrics

8

Plate skills10 metrics

34

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.336
xwOBA current pace	0.343
xwOBA rolling p50	0.341
Observed weight	76%

xwOBA

0.322 0.331 0.341 0.351 0.360

wOBA

0.338 0.349 0.362 0.374 0.385

ISO

0.142 0.151 0.161 0.171 0.180

K%

22.2% 23.1% 24.2% 25.3% 26.2%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.3%

72

Exit velocity91.1

88

Hard-hit%45.9%

84

xBA0.352

84

xSLG0.607

82

xwOBA0.343

88

BB%10.1%

70

Bat speed68.7

36

K%24.2%

43

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs1.0 · 1B

99

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B

47

Range Runs0.1 · 1B

54

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-3.4 · 1B

4

Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B

12

SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.4% · rebadged research

60

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research

49

Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research

55

Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated

81

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

60

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.335 · borderline

4

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample

16

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.316 · validated thin sample

4

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample

10

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.400 · validated

4

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jonathan Aranda's tools (81) outpace production (76) by 5 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-14.5° Current 34° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

291 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.8σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.362

xwOBA (deserved)0.343

Aranda’s wOBA sits at 0.362, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.343 — a gap of 0.019, -0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 685 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Stephenson, Tyler CIN · R	0.78	Oppo ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Freeman, Freddie LAD · L	0.72	Chase rateBat speed	Player · Projection
Busch, Michael CHC · L	0.69	Isolated powerMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Abreu, Wilyer BOS · L	0.66	In-zone contactWalk rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	9	2026-09-13	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	29	2026-09-26	3 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.338

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	3-5
2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB
2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 @ CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, RBI

Age	28
Height	6' 0"
Weight	215 lb
Debut	2022-06-24

xwOBA Δ	-0.006
wOBA Δ	+0.013

Hitter Projections 20260.348 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 1 E	3-5
2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2 BB
2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 @ CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, RBI

Jonathan Aranda

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail