{
  "date": "2026-07-07",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-07T08:02:45.891295",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 162,
    "odds_matched_count": 93,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 28,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824495,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.23,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2056,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824254,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2152,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1938,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.08,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823929,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2191,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1969,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.04,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824254,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1965,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2188,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1966,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.95,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824820,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2094,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.189,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 823607,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1858,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2056,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1859,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.74,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823929,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1817,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2005,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1818,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.51,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_id": 621439,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 823687,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1807,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1993,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1808,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.21,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_id": 624585,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822881,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1879,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2081,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.188,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.57,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "player_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_id": 607208,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824495,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 555,
      "over_odds": 555,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2238,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2534,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2239,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2055,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1936,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 50.08
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.04
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1965,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.95
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1889,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1858,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.74
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1817,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.51
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1807,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.21
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1879,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.57
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trea Turner",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 555,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2238,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}