Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	533	68	132	30	1	.278	.353	.512	.865
2025	445	61	103	21	3	.271	.373	.487	.860
2026	436	57	87	20	2	.227	.312	.424	.736
12 Seasons	5323	759	1341	241	23	.284	.358	.503	.861

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28

91

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

80

Defense3 metrics

63

Speed1 metrics

5

Plate skills10 metrics

65

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28

xwOBA preseason	0.375
xwOBA current pace	0.350
xwOBA rolling p50	0.358
Observed weight	67%

xwOBA

0.332 0.344 0.358 0.371 0.383

wOBA

0.311 0.325 0.340 0.355 0.368

ISO

0.174 0.187 0.201 0.216 0.229

K%

20.2% 21.2% 22.4% 23.6% 24.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%9.9%

98

Exit velocity91.9

93

Hard-hit%50.0%

94

xBA0.343

77

xSLG0.661

91

xwOBA0.350

92

BB%10.4%

73

Bat speed69.8

52

K%23.8%

46 -30 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength85.4 · SS

37

Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS

80

Range Runs1.8 · SS

73

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed25.0 · SS

5

SB Success Rate100.0% · SS

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-28

Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3% · rebadged research

54

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 14.4% · rebadged research

98

Correct Decisions72.2% · rebadged research

94

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112

93

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline

81

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample

68

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308 · validated thin sample

8

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample

10

Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated

70

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated

70

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Corey Seager's tools (81) outpace production (70) by 11 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+20.2° Current -4° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

237 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.340

xwOBA (deserved)0.350

Seager’s wOBA sits at 0.340, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.350 — a gap of 0.010, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 454 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Lowe, Brandon PIT · L	0.64	In-zone contactxwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Pederson, Joc TEX · L	0.64	Sprint speedAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Muncy, Max LAD · L	0.62	xwOBA on contactBat speed	Player · Projection
Alvarez, Francisco NYM · R	0.61	Oppo ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-09-13	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	27	2026-09-27	3 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.461

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.374 xwOBA \| 25 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 K, RBI, R
2026-04-17 @ SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 2B, HBP, 2 R
2026-04-15 @ ATH1 HR \| 2 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-14 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB
2026-04-13 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, BB, K

Age	32
Height	6' 4"
Weight	215 lb
Debut	2015-09-03

xwOBA Δ	-0.024
wOBA Δ	-0.034

Hitter Projections 20260.374 xwOBA \| 25 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 K, RBI, R
2026-04-17 @ SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 2B, HBP, 2 R
2026-04-15 @ ATH1 HR \| 2 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-14 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB
2026-04-13 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, BB, K

Corey Seager

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail