TB at CLE is live now.
1 games on the slate / 1 live / TB +25.0 vs projection / Open Daily for scores, starters, and game reads
Volume IV · 2026-10-16 · Baseball intelligence almanac
Mithrandir Metrics
- Slate
- 1 MLB games indexed
- Pace
- +25.0 TB
- Live
- 1 games in progress
Data Live cache current
Updated Oct 17 06:00 AM ET
Today's games 1
Projection season 2026
Interactive 3D →
Featured · 3D Pitch Lab
Explore the 3D Pitch Lab →
Ryan Helsley tunnels the 4-seam fastball and slider.
Two pitches that leave the hand on the same line and split late. From the hitter's eye they are nearly one pitch at the commit point, then break 18.3″ apart by the plate.
0.3″
apart at commit
→
18.3″
apart at plate
69.5×
divergence
Play now →
New · Perfect Season
Play Perfect Season →
Draft an all-time roster. Can you go 162-0?
Our take on the viral 82-0 game, built for baseball and backed by a real engine. Spin a random franchise and era, draft a full roster across 150 years of players, and we run your team through an era-adjusted simulation into a record, with a full analytical breakdown of the season.
1876+
every era
17
picks
162-0
the dream
Interactive 3D →
New · 3D Swing Simulator
Open the 3D Swing Simulator →
Bo Bichette swings at -2°. We’d move it to 12°.
Real bat tracking, rebuilt as a full 3D swing: an animated batter sweeping his true swing plane, every angle annotated against the MLB average. When our optimization model sees a flat path, the recommended swing overlays as a dashed target. Search any hitter in the league.
-2°
his attack angle
→
12°
our target
3D
full swing sim
New · The Mirror
Open The Mirror →
We simulate every game pitch by pitch, 8,000 times.
The Mirror is our PA-by-PA Monte Carlo engine: real lineups, arsenals, bullpen logic, park and weather, run thousands of times into win probabilities, projected totals and starter strikeouts, then re-simulated live from the actual game state inning by inning. Every call is graded against what really happened on the Sim Record.
8,000
sims / game
live
in-game re-sim
graded
vs reality
New in the Lab / pitcher-vs-hitter scouting
The Matchup Dissector
Any pitcher vs any hitter, pitch by pitch in 3D. The arsenal flies to the plate, the hitter's holes light up red, and the out pitch surfaces itself.
Open the Matchup Dissector →The Comp Constellation
Who is this hitter built like? A star map of profile-shape comps over six feature groups, with the why behind every match and an honest sparse sky when no true twin exists.
Open the Comp Constellation →Pregame Scouting Report
A starter against a full lineup: the top threats, the easiest outs, the pitch to attack each hitter, and the sleeper the box score hides.
Open the Scouting Report →
Standings delta
+25.0
TB is +25.0 wins from preseason pace.
American League East
Actual pace 98.0 wins against 73.0 projected over 162 games.
Pitcher delta
-3.22
Smith, Hagen is -3.22 on ERA versus projection.
CWS / ERA
37.0 IP sample; current-season indicators are driving the delta.
Regression watch
-0.193
Wiemer, Joey has a -0.193 wOBA vs xwOBA gap.
WSH / wOBA vs xwOBA
Large band; direction negative.
Top performers · OBP
Leaderboard snapshot 2026-10-17. The category rotates daily; repeated names mean the same players still lead the selected metric.
Live leaders
Top performers will rotate in after the current leaderboard cache refreshes.
Trending players · latest live snapshot vs prior available snapshot
Trending
Trending cards need two non-empty Live State snapshots; the next cycle will fill this rail.
Projection movers · sample-qualified, role-normalized change
Rolling risers
2026-10-17
Blackburn, PaulPitcher / 92.0 IP / 60.3% obs
ERA4.46 → 2.73
-1.73
Varland, LouisPitcher / 80.0 IP / 56.8% obs
ERA4.11 → 2.49
-1.61
Schlittler, CamPitcher / 208.0 IP / 77.4% obs
ERA3.95 → 2.40
-1.55
Cease, DylanPitcher / 172.3 IP / 74.7% obs
ERA4.11 → 2.83
-1.27
Smith, HagenPitcher / 37.0 IP / 38.3% obs
ERA4.40 → 3.21
-1.19
Rolling fallers
2026-10-17
Hughes, GabrielPitcher / 63.0 IP / 54.1% obs
ERA2.64 → 4.64
+2.00
Gordon, TannerPitcher / 107.0 IP / 67.1% obs
ERA4.47 → 5.95
+1.48
Freeland, KylePitcher / 138.0 IP / 72.4% obs
ERA4.91 → 6.17
+1.26
Guerrero Jr., VladimirHitter / 620.0 PA / 73.8% obs
xwOBA0.397 → 0.348
-0.049
Schultz, NoahPitcher / 76.0 IP / 58.5% obs
ERA3.63 → 4.76
+1.14
Marquee
Live hitter
Nico Hoerner
1.125
8 PA / current season
Live hitter
Ben Rice
1.605
22 PA / current season
Live pitcher
Aaron Ashby
0.00
12.1 IP / current season
Live pitcher
Paul Blackburn
0.00
6.0 IP / current season
Pitcher delta
Smith, Hagen
-3.22
ERA vs projection
Nico Hoerner
Ben Rice
Aaron AshbyRecent dispatches
2026-05-28
Prospects
Current prospect universe refreshed
2026-10-17
Live state
Daily current-state story feed refreshed
2026-10-17
Leaderboards
Leaderboards cache refreshed
2026-10-17
Regression
Regression cache refreshed
2026-10-17
Team deltas
Team deltas cache refreshed
May 28, 2026
Ship
Wave 2: Calibration Drift Moat Ship Summary