Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 225 lb |
| Debut | 2019-05-15 |
Player profile / Atlanta Braves
Austin Riley
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 225 lb · Age 29
Club Atlanta Braves
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 469 | 63 | 109 | 19 | 0 | .256 | .322 | .461 | .783 |
| 2025 | 447 | 54 | 108 | 16 | 2 | .260 | .309 | .428 | .737 |
| 2026 | 630 | 64 | 124 | 19 | 9 | .219 | .290 | .364 | .654 |
| 8 Seasons | 4119 | 544 | 974 | 188 | 16 | .263 | .328 | .473 | .801 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
75
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.344 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.299 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 75% |
xwOBA
0.290
0.300
0.310
0.321
0.331
wOBA
0.283
0.294
0.307
0.319
0.330
ISO
0.146
0.156
0.167
0.178
0.187
K%
27.5%
28.5%
29.6%
30.7%
31.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
85
Exit velocity91.3
90
Hard-hit%44.5%
79
xBA0.331
65
xSLG0.614
82
xwOBA0.299
46
-42 vs proj
BB%7.7%
41
Bat speed74.0
94
K%31.3%
12
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
29
Arm Strength87.2 · 3B
51
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
47
Range Runs0.5 · 3B
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · 3B
45
SB Success Rate85.7% · 3B
67
Sprint Speed27.9 · 3B
61
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.6% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315 · validated
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263 · validated thin sample
86
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
45
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
40
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
260 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.044 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.037 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Riley’s wOBA sits at 0.307, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.299 — a gap of 0.008, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 649 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baty, Brett NYM · L | 0.81 | xwOBA on contactSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Crews, Dylan WSH · R | 0.78 | Chase rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Hernández, Teoscar LAD · R | 0.78 | Hard-hit rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Lewis, Royce MIN · R | 0.77 | In-zone contactMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 5 | 2026-08-12 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 30 | 2026-09-27 | 6 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.662 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.343 xwOBA | 20 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | 2 K |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIA1 HR | 3 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | HR, BB, K |
| 2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 1 E | 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-17 @ PHI2 HR | 4 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | 2 HR, 3 K, 4 RBI |
| 2026-04-15 vs MIA1 HR | 1 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HR, 2B, RBI |