Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2025	446	56	111	19	0	.274	.341	.469	.810
2026	615	85	156	25	3	.284	.358	.459	.817
2 Seasons	1061	141	267	44	3	.280	.351	.463	.814

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

94

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

86

Defense4 metrics

52

Speed2 metrics

18

Plate skills10 metrics

34

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.344
xwOBA current pace	0.370
xwOBA rolling p50	0.363
Observed weight	74%

xwOBA

0.342 0.352 0.363 0.374 0.384

wOBA

0.355 0.367 0.380 0.393 0.405

ISO

0.157 0.167 0.177 0.188 0.198

K%

18.3% 19.2% 20.2% 21.2% 22.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%9.0%

95 +24 vs proj

Exit velocity91.5

91

Hard-hit%50.6%

95

xBA0.367

93

xSLG0.665

92

xwOBA0.370

96

BB%9.1%

58

Bat speed73.5

92

K%21.4%

59 -29 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Blocking Runs0.4 · C

66

Catcher Throwing-3.2 · C

6

Framing Runs2.1 · C

72

Pop Time1.9 · C

65

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-1.5 · C

22

Sprint Speed25.9 · C

15

SB Success Rate100.0% · C

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.3% · rebadged research

26

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research

44

Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research

23

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95

26

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline

32

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample

78

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297 · validated thin sample

18

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample

76

Resists FastballwOBA 0.376 · validated

9

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388 · validated

6

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Drake Baldwin's tools (80) outpace production (74) by 5 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too Low; Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+19.4° Current -3° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

285 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.380

xwOBA (deserved)0.370

Baldwin’s wOBA sits at 0.380, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.370 — a gap of 0.010, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 636 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Canzone, Dominic SEA · L	0.71	In-zone contactGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Stewart, Sal CIN · R	0.70	Walk rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Baty, Brett NYM · L	0.69	Oppo rateBat speed	Player · Projection
Lowe, Nathaniel CIN · L	0.69	Max exit velocityFly-ball rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	11	2026-09-26	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	3	2026-09-10	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.218

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.334 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R
2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR \| 2 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, BB, 2 RBI
2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 K, RBI, R
2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 14 Ch \| 1 E	2-4 \| 2B, K, RBI

Age	25
Height	6' 0"
Weight	225 lb
Debut	2025-03-27

xwOBA Δ	+0.036
wOBA Δ	+0.045

Hitter Projections 20260.334 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R
2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR \| 2 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, BB, 2 RBI
2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 12 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 K, RBI, R
2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 14 Ch \| 1 E	2-4 \| 2B, K, RBI

Drake Baldwin

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail