Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 25 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 211 lb |
| Debut | 2024-03-28 |
Player profile / Detroit Tigers
Colt Keith
3B · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 211 lb · Age 25
Club Detroit Tigers
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 556 | 54 | 134 | 13 | 7 | .260 | .309 | .380 | .689 |
| 2025 | 468 | 65 | 106 | 13 | 1 | .256 | .333 | .413 | .746 |
| 2026 | 423 | 51 | 99 | 10 | 6 | .258 | .322 | .406 | .728 |
| 3 Seasons | 1447 | 170 | 339 | 36 | 14 | .258 | .321 | .398 | .719 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
72
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.333 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.332 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.310
0.321
0.332
0.344
0.354
wOBA
0.317
0.330
0.345
0.361
0.374
ISO
0.128
0.139
0.152
0.164
0.175
K%
17.6%
18.7%
19.9%
21.1%
22.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
66
Exit velocity89.2
65
Hard-hit%43.2%
74
+16 vs proj
xBA0.349
82
xSLG0.542
63
xwOBA0.333
81
BB%8.1%
46
Bat speed70.4
62
K%19.6%
70
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
38
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
19
Range Runs-1.7 · 3B
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.9 · 3B
86
Bolts1.0 · 3B
11
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
94
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
68
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
43
Correct Decisions68.4% · rebadged research
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · borderline
19
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.307 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
78
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
214 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.011 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Keith’s wOBA sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.333 — a gap of 0.012, -0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 444 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karros, Kyle COL · R | 0.76 | Sweet-spot rateChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Rutschman, Adley BAL · L | 0.72 | Ground-ball rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Reynolds, Bryan PIT · L | 0.70 | Bat speedChase rate | Player · Projection |
| Nimmo, Brandon TEX · L | 0.70 | Walk rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-09-12 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 16 | 2026-09-19 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.034 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.335 xwOBA | 14 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-20 vs CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 |
| 2026-04-20 @ BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |
| 2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-14 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |