Reference layer
Current snapshot
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Player profile / TEX
Jake Burger
Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 230 lb · Age 30
Club TEX
Position --
Roster profile
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 579 | 68 | 134 | 29 | 1 | .250 | .301 | .460 | .761 |
| 2025 | 376 | 43 | 84 | 16 | 1 | .236 | .269 | .419 | .688 |
| 2026 | 620 | 71 | 127 | 28 | 4 | .228 | .302 | .421 | .723 |
| 6 Seasons | 2340 | 278 | 520 | 116 | 7 | .242 | .298 | .456 | .754 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
76
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.316 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.306
0.316
0.326
0.336
wOBA
0.311
0.323
0.335
0.348
0.359
ISO
0.174
0.184
0.195
0.207
0.217
K%
24.2%
25.2%
26.3%
27.5%
28.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
85
Exit velocity90.2
81
Hard-hit%45.9%
84
xBA0.326
59
xSLG0.603
81
xwOBA0.316
66
BB%9.1%
58
+42 vs proj
Bat speed73.8
93
K%26.7%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
73
Range Runs0.6 · 1B
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · 1B
26
SB Success Rate60.0% · 1B
13
Sprint Speed27.4 · 1B
48
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions64.5% · rebadged research
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
65
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.412 · validated
2
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
266 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Burger’s wOBA sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.316 — a gap of 0.019, -0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 634 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarez, Francisco NYM · R | 0.74 | Max exit velocityWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Basallo, Samuel BAL · L | 0.72 | Strikeout rateIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Duran, Jarren BOS · L | 0.72 | Strikeout rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Riley, Austin ATL · R | 0.70 | Barrel rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 5 | 2026-08-24 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 22 | 2026-09-26 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.216 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.320 xwOBA | 22 HR | Projection |