Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 25 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 170 lb |
| Debut | 2025-04-19 |
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays
Chandler Simpson
LF · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 170 lb · Age 25
Club Tampa Bay Rays
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 441 | 53 | 122 | 0 | 44 | .295 | .326 | .345 | .671 |
| 2026 | 612 | 66 | 175 | 0 | 46 | .306 | .333 | .356 | .689 |
| 2 Seasons | 1053 | 119 | 297 | 0 | 90 | .302 | .330 | .351 | .681 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
6
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.263 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.279 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.260
0.269
0.279
0.288
0.297
wOBA
0.317
0.329
0.341
0.354
0.365
ISO
0.047
0.056
0.066
0.076
0.085
K%
6.9%
7.7%
8.6%
9.4%
10.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1
Exit velocity80.5
3
Hard-hit%13.6%
1
xBA0.285
16
xSLG0.325
3
xwOBA0.263
15
-48 vs proj
BB%4.1%
9
-21 vs proj
Bat speed60.8
1
K%7.8%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-4.5 · LF
2
Arm Strength96.1 · LF
67
Outs Above Avg8.0 · LF
97
Range Runs7.4 · LF
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs8.1 · LF
99
Bolts122.0 · LF
100
SB Success Rate79.5% · LF
46
Sprint Speed29.4 · LF
94
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · borderline
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
37
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
67
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.337 · validated
86
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.050 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.027 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Simpson’s wOBA sits at 0.341, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.263 — a gap of 0.078, -3.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 632 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frelick, Sal MIL · L | 0.31 | xwOBA on contactWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Mangum, Jake PIT · L | 0.30 | Max exit velocitySprint speed | Player · Projection |
| Lukes, Nathan TOR · L | 0.30 | Swing lengthMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Wilson, Jacob ATH · R | 0.29 | In-zone contactWalk rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielding | 28 | 2026-09-24 | 5 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +2.042 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA | 5 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 |
| 2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K, R |
| 2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | R |
| 2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | R |
| 2026-04-15 @ CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |