Section III · Betting · Price comparison
Model-market gaps.
Largest market gaps, paired with the model-health context needed to interpret them.
WATCH MODE largest lane gaps
THRESHOLDS ≤5pp aligned · 6-10pp soft · >10pp split
HEALTH scheduled lane metrics
Top half · disagreement leaderboard
| # | Selection | Market | Three lanes | Spread | Market fair | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Victor Scott IISTL vs MIL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
4.5
F
0.0
V
10.4
FULL
|
10.4 pts | 7.7% | Valinor sees 10.4%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 10.4 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. |
| 02 | Chandler SimpsonTB vs PHI |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
2.1
F
0.0
V
10.2
FULL
|
10.2 pts | 8.0% | Valinor sees 10.2%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 10.2 pts. Market fair: 8.0%. |
| 03 | Luke KeaschallMIN vs TEX |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
9.6
F
5.3
V
10.9
FULL
|
5.6 pts | 11.0% | Valinor sees 10.9%; Fangorn sees 5.3%; gap of 5.6 pts. Market fair: 11.0%. |
| 04 | Austin HaysCWS vs COL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
14.1
F
15.3
V
9.7
FULL
|
5.6 pts | 11.7% | Fangorn sees 15.3%; Valinor sees 9.7%; gap of 5.6 pts. Market fair: 11.7%. |
| 05 | Cal RaleighSEA vs LAA |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
13.5
F
12.0
V
17.1
FULL
|
5.1 pts | 25.1% | Valinor sees 17.1%; Fangorn sees 12.0%; gap of 5.1 pts. Market fair: 25.1%. |
| 06 | Andrew BenintendiCWS vs COL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
12.9
F
14.5
V
9.5
FULL
|
5.0 pts | 11.7% | Fangorn sees 14.5%; Valinor sees 9.5%; gap of 5.0 pts. Market fair: 11.7%. |
Bottom half · model-health audit
| Market | Lane | Logged | Brier | ECE | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home_runs | palantirrecalibrated |
21810 | 0.1183 | 0.0040 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | fangornrecalibrated |
21810 | 0.1184 | 0.0046 | 14d error falling | healthy |
| home_runs | valinorrecalibrated |
16122 | 0.1145 | 0.0019 | 14d stable | healthy |
| strikeouts | palantirrecalibrated |
1972 | 0.2481 | 0.0112 | 14d error falling | healthy |
| strikeouts | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
53 | 0.2569 | 0.1190 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | valinorrecalibrated |
1468 | 0.2483 | 0.0091 | 14d stable | healthy |
| total_bases | palantirrecalibrated |
10537 | 0.2386 | 0.0407 | 14d error rising | calibration review |
| total_bases | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| total_bases | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | palantirskipped_insufficient_validation_split |
850 | 0.1665 | 0.0363 | 14d stable | calibration review |
| hits | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | palantirrecalibrated |
1097 | 0.2553 | 0.0515 | 14d stable | healthy |
| pitcher_outs | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |