{
  "date": "2026-07-06",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-06T08:02:35.571489",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 117,
    "odds_matched_count": 67,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 24,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822712,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2038,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2279,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.204,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
      "hitter_id": 666969,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 824089,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2208,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1983,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.43,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822712,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2158,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1943,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.83,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 824089,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.219,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1968,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.61,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823036,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1953,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2173,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1954,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.79,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 823930,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1849,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2044,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.185,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 823205,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1817,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2005,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1818,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.51,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez",
      "hitter_id": 521692,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 824089,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1998,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1812,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.33,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies",
      "hitter_id": 645277,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "NYM",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYM",
      "game_id": 824900,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 615,
      "over_odds": 615,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2071,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2321,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2073,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "player_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 671277,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 822712,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 675,
      "over_odds": 675,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2144,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1931,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.9,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2038,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.43
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.83
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.61
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1953,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.79
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1849,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1817,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.51
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Salvador Perez",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.33
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "NYM",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 615,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2071,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 675,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.9
      }
    ]
  }
}