Reference layer
Current snapshot
| MLB bio context is unavailable. |
Player profile / SF
Matt Chapman
Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 220 lb · Age 33
Club SF
Position --
Roster profile
Status IL-60
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 647 | 98 | 142 | 27 | 15 | .247 | .328 | .463 | .791 |
| 2025 | 535 | 76 | 105 | 21 | 9 | .231 | .340 | .430 | .770 |
| 2026 | 352 | 35 | 72 | 7 | 0 | .235 | .324 | .368 | .692 |
| 10 Seasons | 5122 | 696 | 1073 | 210 | 35 | .240 | .330 | .452 | .782 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48
Exit velocity88.3
53
Hard-hit%36.7%
43
xBA0.286
17
xSLG0.435
26
xwOBA0.286
31
BB%10.4%
74
Bat speed74.2
95
K%22.3%
54
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · 3B
67
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
88
Range Runs2.8 · 3B
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 3B
32
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
68
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4% · rebadged research
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
35
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
80
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343 · validated
80
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Chapman’s wOBA sits at 0.346, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.286 — a gap of 0.060, -2.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 364 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Herrera, Iván STL · R | 0.73 | Walk rateIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Sheets, Gavin SD · L | 0.70 | Pull rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Springer, George TOR · R | 0.68 | Ground-ball ratePull rate | Player · Projection |
| Ortiz, Joey MIL · R | 0.66 | Hard-hit rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-03-25 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet. |