Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	224	24	40	13	1	.190	.228	.417	.645
2025	579	73	150	31	1	.278	.323	.520	.843
2026	574	84	127	41	5	.245	.310	.529	.839
4 Seasons	1454	187	331	86	8	.247	.299	.500	.799

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28

83

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

73

Defense4 metrics

34

Speed4 metrics

17

Plate skills10 metrics

36

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28

xwOBA preseason	0.309
xwOBA current pace	0.321
xwOBA rolling p50	0.318
Observed weight	73%

xwOBA

0.297 0.307 0.318 0.329 0.339

wOBA

0.360 0.372 0.386 0.399 0.411

ISO

0.246 0.258 0.271 0.284 0.296

K%

25.9% 27.0% 28.2% 29.4% 30.5%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%8.8%

94

Exit velocity90.0

78

Hard-hit%45.5%

82

xBA0.345

79

xSLG0.689

94

xwOBA0.321

70

BB%8.0%

45 +20 vs proj

Bat speed73.5

92

K%29.7%

18 -29 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Blocking Runs-0.7 · C

33

Catcher Throwing-1.5 · C

17

Framing Runs-0.8 · C

41

Pop Time1.9 · C

46

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-3.2 · C

7

Bolts1.0 · C

11

SB Success Rate42.9% · C

2

Sprint Speed27.3 · C

47

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-28

Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.0% · rebadged research

8

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research

62

Correct Decisions61.2% · rebadged research

10

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline

17

Resists FastballwOBA 0.307 · validated

93

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91

12

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample

58

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample

79

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample

16

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.398 · validated

3

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Hunter Goodman's tools (65) outpace production (62) by 3 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

246 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-2.6σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.386

xwOBA (deserved)0.321

Goodman’s wOBA sits at 0.386, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.321 — a gap of 0.065, -2.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 599 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Mayo, Coby BAL · R	0.75	Swing lengthGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Contreras, Willson BOS · R	0.66	Sprint speedMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Lowe, Brandon PIT · L	0.58	Fly-ball rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Burger, Jake TEX · R	0.55	Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-09-14	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	8	2026-09-25	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.555

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA \| 27 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K
2026-04-20 vs LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| K
2026-04-15 @ HOU0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 3 K
2026-04-14 @ HOU2 HR \| 2 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2 HR, 3 K, 2 RBI
2026-04-12 @ SD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, 2 K

Age	26
Height	5' 11"
Weight	220 lb
Debut	2023-08-27

xwOBA Δ	-0.000
wOBA Δ	+0.065

Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA \| 27 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K
2026-04-20 vs LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| K
2026-04-15 @ HOU0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 3 K
2026-04-14 @ HOU2 HR \| 2 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 2 HR, 3 K, 2 RBI
2026-04-12 @ SD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, 2 K

Hunter Goodman

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail