Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	554	64	130	19	1	.262	.315	.446	.761
2025	682	72	164	32	1	.264	.323	.475	.798
2026	481	54	105	17	5	.249	.333	.428	.761
5 Seasons	2275	239	532	87	8	.262	.331	.450	.781

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28

69

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

68

Defense2 metrics

53

Speed2 metrics

14

Plate skills10 metrics

52

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28

xwOBA preseason	0.336
xwOBA current pace	0.338
xwOBA rolling p50	0.338
Observed weight	69%

xwOBA

0.317 0.327 0.338 0.349 0.359

wOBA

0.318 0.331 0.345 0.359 0.372

ISO

0.156 0.167 0.180 0.192 0.203

K%

13.4% 14.3% 15.3% 16.4% 17.3%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.9%

80

Exit velocity89.9

77

Hard-hit%42.1%

68

xBA0.312

41

xSLG0.538

61

xwOBA0.338

85

BB%10.3%

73 +28 vs proj

Bat speed69.0

42

K%15.4%

88

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B

47

Range Runs0.4 · 1B

58

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-2.1 · 1B

15

Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B

13

SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-28

Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7% · rebadged research

57

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research

80

Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research

66

Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated

43

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105

70

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline

76

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample

24

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297 · validated thin sample

19

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · insufficient sample

7

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated

74

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Vinnie Pasquantino's production (82) outpaces the tools grade (75) by 6 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-12.0° Current 32° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

273 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.345

xwOBA (deserved)0.338

Pasquantino’s wOBA sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.338 — a gap of 0.007, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 494 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Bregman, Alex CHC · R	0.75	Whiff rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Tucker, Kyle LAD · L	0.72	Bat speedPull rate	Player · Projection
Bellinger, Cody NYY · L	0.71	Chase rateWalk rate	Player · Projection
Rutschman, Adley BAL · L	0.66	Bat speedWhiff rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	7	2026-09-27	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	20	2026-09-27	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.296

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.333 xwOBA \| 23 HR	Projection
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 BB, K, R
2026-04-17 @ NYY1 HR \| 2 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-15 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 3B, BB
2026-04-14 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 13 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K, R
2026-04-12 vs CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, K, RBI

Age	28
Height	6' 3"
Weight	245 lb
Debut	2022-06-28

xwOBA Δ	+0.006
wOBA Δ	+0.012

Hitter Projections 20260.333 xwOBA \| 23 HR	Projection
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 BB, K, R
2026-04-17 @ NYY1 HR \| 2 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-15 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 3B, BB
2026-04-14 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 13 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K, R
2026-04-12 vs CWS0 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, K, RBI

Vinnie Pasquantino

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail