Mithrandir Metrics
TB American League East Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League East

Tampa Bay Rays

73.0-89.0 with P10-P90 wins 64-82. 81.9 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
73.0-89.0
Live pace
98.6
Delta
+25.6
Record 98-63 Run diff 90 Generated 2026-09-27T11:48:30.615249+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason73.0
Current pace98.6
Rolling p5091.7
Observed weight73%
Rolling wins
82.0 86.6 91.7 96.7 101.3
MOVE +18.7 wins PACE ahead BULLPEN FIP 4.33
October path

Projection odds

Division0.6%
Playoffs7.3%
Pennant0.4%
World Series0.2%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.251
Rotation FIP4.32
Bullpen FIP4.33
Run diff-70.1
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-09-27; positions prioritize the latest confirmed lineup from 2026-09-27.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CFortes, Nick365-1.26
1BAranda, Jonathan4374.55
2BPalacios, Richie2650.96
SSMateo, Jorge270-0.50
3BCaminero, Junior5545.90
LFMesa Jr., Victor219-0.44
CFMullins, Cedric509-1.08
RFDeLuca, Jonny276-0.48
DHHicks, Liam4030.37
Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
Lux, GavinHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Pepiot, RyanPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
McClanahan, ShanePitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
Wells, TylerPitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
Uceta, EdwinPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Cleavinger, GarrettPitcherIL-15Injured 15-Day
Heasley, JonathanPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Williams, CarsonHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Melton, JacobHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Madrigal, NickHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Piper, KennyHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Areinamo, JadherHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Boyle, JoePitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Englert, MasonPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors