Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Seymour, Ian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
20.6% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal6 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.87
ERA current pace4.22
ERA rolling p504.41
Observed weight70%
ERA
3.18 3.76 4.41 5.06 5.65
FIP
3.15 3.57 4.03 4.49 4.90
K%
25.1% 26.2% 27.4% 28.5% 29.6%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.8% 7.5% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
82
ERA4.22
45
BB%6.5%
84 +18 vs proj
K%28.5%
88 +30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.292
76 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.7%
17 -28 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
7
Hard-hit allowed36.7%
64
Whiff%26.2%
76 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+103
56
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Slider Stuff+104
68
Cutter Stuff+100
41
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Seymour, Ian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.292 2026-09-13: 0.2892026-09-14: 0.2892026-09-18: 0.2892026-09-19: 0.2952026-09-20: 0.2952026-09-21: 0.2952026-09-22: 0.2952026-09-23: 0.2952026-09-24: 0.2952026-09-25: 0.2952026-09-26: 0.2922026-09-27: 0.292 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Seymour, Ian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seymour, Ian · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 28.9%4-Seam Fastball: 27.5%Sweeper: 19.3%Sinker: 16.2%Slider: 6.5%Cutter: 1.0% CH29% · 83 mphprimary pitch CH 29%FF 28%ST 19%SI 16%SL 6%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seymour, Ian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Changeup: 29% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 83.5 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 91.4 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 81.6 mphST82 mphSinker: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.9 mphSI90 mphSlider: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.2 mphFC87 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 65″ drop, 72.7 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 29.8% 280 103 qualified
SL 24.6% 231 104 qualified
FB 23.6% 222 101 qualified
SI 20.3% 191 102 limited sample
FC 1.3% 12 100 limited sample
CB 0.4% 4 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.255 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Changeup 32%, Cutter 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.23
K% Δ+0.053
Sample135.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.0----
Batters Faced291----
K%23.1%20.6% to 30.1%+/- 4.7%
BB%7.8%5.9% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.2%20.5% to 28.4%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.160.69 to 1.65+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.3060.289 to 0.355+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed7.7%5.6% to 10.7%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.992.80 to 6.04+/- 1.62
FIP3.732.78 to 5.07+/- 1.15
WHIP1.2800.995 to 1.586+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

79 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%24.1%
BB%6.7%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

163 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%22.1%
BB%7.5%
Barrel7.6%