Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Scholtens, Jesse

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
13.4% to 28.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal4 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace4.03
ERA rolling p504.06
Observed weight45%
ERA
2.13 3.05 4.06 5.08 5.99
FIP
3.63 4.15 4.72 5.30 5.82
K%
14.5% 16.6% 18.9% 21.2% 23.2%
BB%
5.1% 6.2% 7.4% 8.7% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
46
ERA4.03
50
BB%7.1%
76
K%17.3%
16 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.348
16 -53 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.3%
12 -27 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
22
Hard-hit allowed35.2%
75
Whiff%18.9%
19 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Slider Stuff+104
69
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Sinker Stuff+102
49
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scholtens, Jesse · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.348 2026-09-13: 0.3482026-09-14: 0.3482026-09-18: 0.3482026-09-19: 0.3482026-09-20: 0.3482026-09-21: 0.3482026-09-22: 0.3482026-09-23: 0.3482026-09-24: 0.3482026-09-25: 0.3482026-09-26: 0.3482026-09-27: 0.348 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scholtens, Jesse · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scholtens, Jesse · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 30.7%Sinker: 23.4%4-Seam Fastball: 21.6%Split-Finger: 13.8%Sweeper: 10.5% SL31% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 31%SI 23%FF 22%FS 14%ST 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scholtens, Jesse · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.3 mphSL88 mphSinker: 23% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.1 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphSplit-Finger: 14% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.1 mphFS84 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.4 mphST80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 47.4% 276 104 qualified
SI 27.8% 162 102 limited sample
FB 24.7% 144 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Slider 33%, Sweeper 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.36
K% Δ-0.047
Sample44.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.7----
Batters Faced146----
K%22.0%13.4% to 28.2%+/- 7.4%
BB%7.7%4.5% to 12.2%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%22.9%16.6% to 29.1%+/- 6.3%
HR/91.160.56 to 2.68+/- 1.06
xwOBA Against0.2990.267 to 0.376+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.2% to 12.5%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.392.12 to 7.55+/- 2.72
FIP4.112.96 to 6.05+/- 1.54
WHIP1.3751.112 to 1.830+/- 0.359
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

195 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%14.9%
BB%7.4%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

239 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%15.6%
BB%5.9%
Barrel8.2%