Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

McClanahan, Shane

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
19.3% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal5 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace3.36
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight68%
ERA
2.41 2.93 3.50 4.08 4.60
FIP
2.59 3.07 3.62 4.16 4.65
K%
20.8% 21.9% 23.1% 24.3% 25.4%
BB%
6.8% 7.5% 8.3% 9.0% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
85
ERA3.36
73
BB%8.3%
57
K%22.5%
52
xwOBA allowed0.318
43
Barrel allowed8.8%
29
Fastball velo95.5
67
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
25
Whiff%25.0%
67
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+107
85
Fastball Stuff+101
44
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Slider Stuff+104
71
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McClanahan, Shane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.318 2026-09-13: 0.3182026-09-14: 0.3182026-09-18: 0.3182026-09-19: 0.3182026-09-20: 0.3182026-09-21: 0.3182026-09-22: 0.3182026-09-23: 0.3182026-09-24: 0.3182026-09-25: 0.3182026-09-26: 0.3182026-09-27: 0.318 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McClanahan, Shane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McClanahan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.2%Changeup: 28.2%Slider: 17.9%Curveball: 14.7% FF39% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 39%CH 28%SL 18%CU 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McClanahan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.8 mphCH87 mphSlider: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.2 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 82.1 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.6% 430 101 qualified
CH 28.9% 331 107 qualified
SL 19.5% 223 104 qualified
CB 14.1% 161 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.242 vs 0.265 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.34
K% Δ+0.005
Sample125.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.5----
Batters Faced260----
K%22.0%19.3% to 29.7%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.7%5.4% to 11.6%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%25.8%23.3% to 33.9%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.500.88 to 2.11+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3160.269 to 0.347+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.5% to 11.8%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.702.29 to 5.19+/- 1.45
FIP3.982.97 to 5.71+/- 1.37
WHIP1.1960.930 to 1.478+/- 0.274
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

335 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%21.5%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1435 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%21.2%
BB%7.7%
Barrel8.7%