Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Mateo, Jorge
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TB
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
44
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.271 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.241
0.259
0.280
0.300
0.319
wOBA
0.251
0.269
0.289
0.309
0.327
ISO
0.096
0.113
0.133
0.152
0.170
K%
24.2%
26.0%
27.9%
29.9%
31.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48
+18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.9
28
Hard-hit%35.3%
36
xBA0.333
69
xSLG0.537
61
xwOBA0.271
20
-16 vs proj
BB%5.5%
18
Bat speed70.5
63
K%30.2%
17
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · SS
27
Arm Strength94.1 · SS
94
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS
19
Range Runs-1.3 · SS
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.7 · SS
85
Bolts36.0 · SS
86
SB Success Rate86.4% · SS
70
Sprint Speed30.2 · SS
99
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.3% · rebadged research
10
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions62.1% · rebadged research
17
Fastball Stuff+84
1
Mithrandir Stuff+78
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
71
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
18
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
110 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| Sample | 235 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 270 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.292 | 0.199 to 0.340 | +/- 0.071 |
| ISO | 0.144 | 0.073 to 0.216 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 3.6% | 1.1% to 6.5% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.5% | 29.2% to 46.7% | +/- 8.7% |
| K% | 26.5% | 19.6% to 32.8% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.0% to 9.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.200 to 0.335 | +/- 0.068 |
vs LHP
574 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.194 |
| K% | 16.6% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |
vs RHP
961 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.177 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |