Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Jax, Griffin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
29.2% K%
Range
25.0% to 40.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal7 metrics
89
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace3.62
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.41 3.01 3.69 4.36 4.96
FIP
2.52 2.98 3.50 4.02 4.49
K%
23.9% 25.4% 27.1% 28.7% 30.2%
BB%
5.9% 6.6% 7.3% 8.1% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
75
ERA3.62
66
BB%7.5%
69
K%25.0%
70 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
44 -45 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
34
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed39.5%
42
Whiff%27.8%
86
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+110
96
Fastball Stuff+109
93
Mithrandir Stuff+109
97
Sinker Stuff+109
92
Slider Stuff+110
96
Curveball Stuff+105
84
Cutter Stuff+103
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jax, Griffin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.317 2026-09-13: 0.3282026-09-14: 0.3282026-09-18: 0.3222026-09-19: 0.3222026-09-20: 0.3222026-09-21: 0.3202026-09-22: 0.3202026-09-23: 0.3202026-09-24: 0.3202026-09-25: 0.3202026-09-26: 0.3202026-09-27: 0.317 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jax, Griffin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jax, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 25.1%Sinker: 22.7%Changeup: 22.5%4-Seam Fastball: 18.1%Curveball: 8.7%Cutter: 2.9% ST25% · 88 mphprimary pitch ST 25%SI 23%CH 23%FF 18%CU 9%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jax, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.5 mphST88 mphSinker: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.8 mphCH91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 84.9 mphCU85 mphCutter: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.8 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 24.9% 264 110 qualified
SI 21.7% 230 109 qualified
CH 21.1% 224 110 qualified
FB 20.2% 214 109 qualified
CB 8.4% 89 105 limited sample
FC 3.9% 41 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 43%, Changeup 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.19
K% Δ-0.042
Sample111.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.8----
Batters Faced286----
K%29.2%25.0% to 40.7%+/- 7.8%
BB%7.9%4.5% to 10.1%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%30.4%28.3% to 38.2%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.050.65 to 1.77+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2680.236 to 0.317+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.4% to 12.1%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.432.27 to 5.72+/- 1.72
FIP2.871.58 to 4.24+/- 1.33
WHIP1.1180.933 to 1.524+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

674 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%30.3%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

882 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%30.5%
BB%5.7%
Barrel8.9%