Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Baker, Bryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.2% K%
Range
19.9% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
83
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal4 metrics
80
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.58
ERA current pace1.44
ERA rolling p502.49
Observed weight51%
ERA
0.96 1.68 2.49 3.29 4.01
FIP
2.39 2.85 3.36 3.87 4.33
K%
22.7% 24.7% 27.0% 29.2% 31.2%
BB%
6.0% 7.1% 8.3% 9.6% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.93
97
ERA1.44
99
BB%8.7%
51
K%26.2%
78
xwOBA allowed0.272
88 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
51 +15 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed35.8%
70
Whiff%24.2%
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+108
91
Fastball Stuff+105
70
Mithrandir Stuff+105
79
Slider Stuff+106
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Baker, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.272 2026-09-13: 0.2732026-09-14: 0.2732026-09-18: 0.2732026-09-19: 0.2732026-09-20: 0.2732026-09-21: 0.2742026-09-22: 0.2742026-09-23: 0.2722026-09-24: 0.2722026-09-25: 0.2722026-09-26: 0.2722026-09-27: 0.272 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Baker, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baker, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 52.7%Changeup: 43.2%Slider: 4.1% FF53% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 53%CH 43%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baker, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 53% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 43% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mphSlider: 4% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.8 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.4% 331 105 qualified
CH 44.9% 289 108 qualified
SL 3.7% 24 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 28%, Slider 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.37
K% Δ-0.010
Sample63.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.9----
Batters Faced153----
K%27.2%19.9% to 35.7%+/- 7.9%
BB%8.3%4.8% to 13.0%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%25.1%19.1% to 29.8%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.280.80 to 2.53+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3010.261 to 0.347+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.4% to 14.5%+/- 4.6%
ERA3.812.43 to 6.74+/- 2.15
FIP3.692.76 to 5.50+/- 1.37
WHIP1.2010.972 to 1.597+/- 0.312
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

369 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%25.8%
BB%8.7%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

536 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%25.7%
BB%6.5%
Barrel10.7%