Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Legumina, Casey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
17.6% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.82
ERA rolling p504.15
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.45 3.26 4.15 5.04 5.85
FIP
3.13 3.59 4.10 4.60 5.06
K%
16.9% 18.3% 19.9% 21.5% 22.9%
BB%
5.5% 6.4% 7.4% 8.4% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
60
ERA3.82
59
BB%6.3%
87 +39 vs proj
K%17.7%
19 -38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
46 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.4%
67 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo93.0
25
Hard-hit allowed38.2%
52
Whiff%18.6%
17 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-28
Fastball Stuff+107
83
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Changeup Stuff+100
37
Sinker Stuff+107
82
Slider Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Legumina, Casey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.316 2026-09-14: 0.3182026-09-18: 0.3212026-09-19: 0.3162026-09-20: 0.3162026-09-21: 0.3162026-09-22: 0.3162026-09-23: 0.3162026-09-24: 0.3142026-09-25: 0.3142026-09-26: 0.3152026-09-27: 0.3152026-09-28: 0.316 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Legumina, Casey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Legumina, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.1%Sinker: 21.7%Sweeper: 12.1%Changeup: 11.8%Slider: 11.4% FF43% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 43%SI 22%ST 12%CH 12%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Legumina, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphSinker: 22% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.9 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 79.9 mphST80 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.6 mphCH87 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.9% 277 107 qualified
SL 23.5% 152 105 limited sample
SI 20.9% 135 107 limited sample
CH 12.7% 82 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.290 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sinker 22%, Sweeper 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.92
K% Δ-0.052
Sample74.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings60.7----
Batters Faced272----
K%22.9%17.6% to 29.7%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.1%5.7% to 13.3%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.3%15.3% to 25.2%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.340.91 to 2.42+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3330.260 to 0.375+/- 0.058
Barrel% Allowed7.8%4.8% to 11.7%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.742.79 to 7.55+/- 2.38
FIP4.192.77 to 5.47+/- 1.35
WHIP1.3921.148 to 1.769+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.2%
BB%11.8%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

186 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%21.0%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.3%