Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Kelly, Kevin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.5% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal5 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.54
ERA current pace2.44
ERA rolling p502.94
Observed weight54%
ERA
1.42 2.14 2.94 3.74 4.47
FIP
2.24 2.81 3.44 4.07 4.64
K%
18.3% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 25.7%
BB%
2.9% 3.7% 4.6% 5.6% 6.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.91
97
ERA2.44
92
BB%3.8%
99
K%22.0%
49
xwOBA allowed0.284
81 +38 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.8%
77 +37 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed45.4%
8
Whiff%21.6%
42
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-28
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Sinker Stuff+110
96
Changeup Stuff+104
63
Fastball Stuff+97
18
Slider Stuff+107
88
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kelly, Kevin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.284 2026-09-14: 0.2952026-09-18: 0.2862026-09-19: 0.2862026-09-20: 0.2862026-09-21: 0.2842026-09-22: 0.2842026-09-23: 0.2832026-09-24: 0.2832026-09-25: 0.2832026-09-26: 0.2842026-09-27: 0.2842026-09-28: 0.284 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kelly, Kevin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 57.3%Changeup: 27.7%Sweeper: 7.4%4-Seam Fastball: 7.0%Cutter: 0.6% SI57% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 57%CH 28%ST 7%FF 7%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 57% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 78.3 mphST78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 57.9% 369 110 qualified
CH 26.4% 168 104 limited sample
SL 8.2% 52 107 limited sample
FB 7.1% 45 97 limited sample
FC 0.5% 3 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.314 vs 0.285 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 59%, Sweeper 20%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.54
K% Δ+0.008
Sample73.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.1----
Batters Faced159----
K%21.2%16.5% to 31.0%+/- 7.3%
BB%5.4%1.9% to 8.8%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%20.5%16.3% to 27.3%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.400.42 to 2.02+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3180.257 to 0.380+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.2% to 12.0%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.981.80 to 6.09+/- 2.15
FIP3.932.36 to 5.74+/- 1.69
WHIP1.1740.910 to 1.502+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

316 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%20.9%
BB%4.5%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

470 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%21.5%
BB%3.6%
Barrel7.1%