The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 256 qualified hitters (338+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Bailey, Patrick in signal, the comp in amber.
CLE · bats L · 358 PA
Ranked comps for Bailey, Patrick
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L · 472 PA | 0.79 | Chase rateHard-hit rateSweet-spot rate | Sprint speed +1.1zIsolated power +0.9zStrikeout rate -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | McMahon, Ryan NYY · L · 381 PA | 0.79 | xwOBA on contactSwing lengthOppo rate | Max exit velocity +0.9zSweet-spot rate -0.8zFly-ball rate +0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Ballesteros, Moisés CHC · L · 371 PA | 0.76 | In-zone contactWhiff rateBat speed | Sweet-spot rate -1.1zxwOBA on contact -0.9zPull rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R · 482 PA | 0.74 | Walk rateIsolated powerFly-ball rate | Sprint speed +2.0zStrikeout rate -0.8zMax exit velocity +0.6z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Caratini, Victor MIN · L · 400 PA | 0.72 | Avg exit velocityBarrel rateOppo rate | xwOBA on contact -1.1zChase rate -0.9zFly-ball rate -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Tawa, Tim AZ · R · 370 PA | 0.70 | Ground-ball ratexwOBA on contactBat speed | Sprint speed +1.8zOppo rate -1.2zPull rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Cortes, Carlos ATH · L · 392 PA | 0.69 | Sweet-spot rateIn-zone contactWalk rate | Strikeout rate -1.6zxwOBA on contact -1.3zPull rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Freeman, Freddie LAD · L · 678 PA | 0.69 | Sprint speedHard-hit rateGround-ball rate | Strikeout rate -1.5zSweet-spot rate +1.4zSwing length -1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 474 PA | 0.67 | Swing lengthChase rateBarrel rate | Strikeout rate -1.3zSprint speed +1.3zIn-zone contact +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Walker, Christian HOU · R · 649 PA | 0.65 | Avg exit velocityIn-zone contactChase rate | Isolated power +1.7zMax exit velocity +1.1zSweet-spot rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Heim, Jonah ATH · L · 402 PA | 0.64 | Ground-ball rateFly-ball rateMax exit velocity | Strikeout rate -1.4zxwOBA on contact -1.4zHard-hit rate -1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Aranda, Jonathan TB · L · 687 PA | 0.63 | In-zone contactSwing lengthSprint speed | Pull rate -1.2zGround-ball rate -1.1zFly-ball rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.