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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
PIT 4, DET 2. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
PIT 4, DET 2
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
4 – 2final score
6total runs
55% → 0%DET win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
Jones, Jared vs Ryan, River · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
PIT 45.3%DET 54.7%
3.75 – 4.02mean score
7.78mean total
57%NRFI
10.4%extra innings
6.91 / 1.97starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
PIT (gold) vs DET (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
PIT per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin, Konnor | 4.739 | 1.14 | 0.077 | 1.64 | 0.313 | 1.392 | 0.356 |
| O'Hearn, Ryan | 4.62 | 1.102 | 0.138 | 1.767 | 0.343 | 1.222 | 0.469 |
| Reynolds, Bryan | 4.511 | 1.038 | 0.088 | 1.555 | 0.502 | 1.263 | 0.425 |
| Flores Jr., Rafael | 4.413 | 1.002 | 0.185 | 1.819 | 0.382 | 1.353 | 0.608 |
| Horwitz, Spencer | 4.311 | 0.911 | 0.085 | 1.338 | 0.427 | 0.935 | 0.412 |
| Gonzales, Nick | 4.205 | 1.128 | 0.04 | 1.449 | 0.293 | 0.904 | 0.37 |
| Mangum, Jake | 4.105 | 1.013 | 0.045 | 1.351 | 0.233 | 1.033 | 0.36 |
| Gonzalez, Jacob | 3.989 | 0.845 | 0.098 | 1.31 | 0.24 | 0.962 | 0.423 |
| Cook, Billy | 3.866 | 0.796 | 0.068 | 1.154 | 0.258 | 1.248 | 0.331 |
Projected batting lines
DET per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark, Max | 4.608 | 1.118 | 0.08 | 1.626 | 0.421 | 1.285 | 0.377 |
| Lee, Hao-Yu | 4.5 | 1.093 | 0.116 | 1.692 | 0.399 | 1.377 | 0.472 |
| McGonigle, Kevin | 4.386 | 1.085 | 0.101 | 1.635 | 0.558 | 0.908 | 0.498 |
| Greene, Riley | 4.289 | 1.03 | 0.123 | 1.677 | 0.462 | 1.447 | 0.597 |
| Valencia, Eduardo | 4.194 | 1.143 | 0.135 | 1.871 | 0.281 | 1.243 | 0.638 |
| Callahan, Brett | 4.089 | 0.843 | 0.075 | 1.251 | 0.362 | 1.411 | 0.392 |
| Torkelson, Spencer | 3.978 | 0.766 | 0.134 | 1.365 | 0.446 | 1.5 | 0.462 |
| McKinstry, Zach | 3.855 | 0.746 | 0.047 | 1.011 | 0.381 | 0.914 | 0.292 |
| Peck, John | 3.732 | 0.732 | 0.056 | 1.022 | 0.355 | 1.046 | 0.295 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Griffin, Konnor vs Ryan, River: 1B
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Ryan, River: 1B
Reynolds, Bryan vs Ryan, River: BB
Flores Jr., Rafael vs Ryan, River: OUT GB
Horwitz, Spencer vs Ryan, River: K
Gonzales, Nick vs Ryan, River: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Clark, Max vs Jones, Jared: 2B
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Jones, Jared: OUT AIR
McGonigle, Kevin vs Jones, Jared: OUT AIR
Greene, Riley vs Jones, Jared: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Mangum, Jake vs Ryan, River: OUT GB
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Smith, Burch: 1B
Cook, Billy vs Smith, Burch: 3B +1 run (1-0)
Griffin, Konnor vs Smith, Burch: HR +2 runs (3-0)
O'Hearn, Ryan vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: K
Reynolds, Bryan vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: BB
Flores Jr., Rafael vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: K
— Bottom 2 —
Valencia, Eduardo vs Jones, Jared: K
Callahan, Brett vs Jones, Jared: OUT GB
Torkelson, Spencer vs Jones, Jared: BB
McKinstry, Zach vs Jones, Jared: 1B
Peck, John vs Jones, Jared: K
— Top 3 —
Horwitz, Spencer vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: OUT AIR
Gonzales, Nick vs Brieske, Beau: 1B
Mangum, Jake vs Brieske, Beau: OUT AIR
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Brieske, Beau: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Clark, Max vs Jones, Jared: K
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Jones, Jared: HR +1 run (3-1)
McGonigle, Kevin vs Jones, Jared: OUT AIR
Greene, Riley vs Jones, Jared: BB
Valencia, Eduardo vs Jones, Jared: K
— Top 4 —
Cook, Billy vs Brieske, Beau: OUT AIR
Griffin, Konnor vs Madden, Ty: K
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Madden, Ty: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Callahan, Brett vs Jones, Jared: 1B
Torkelson, Spencer vs Jones, Jared: K
McKinstry, Zach vs Jones, Jared: OUT GB
Peck, John vs Jones, Jared: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Reynolds, Bryan vs Madden, Ty: OUT GB
Flores Jr., Rafael vs Madden, Ty: OUT AIR
Horwitz, Spencer vs Madden, Ty: BB
Gonzales, Nick vs Madden, Ty: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Clark, Max vs Jones, Jared: K
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Jones, Jared: K
McGonigle, Kevin vs Jones, Jared: K
— Top 6 —
Mangum, Jake vs Vest, Will: K
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Vest, Will: K
Cook, Billy vs Vest, Will: BB
Griffin, Konnor vs Vest, Will: K
— Bottom 6 —
Greene, Riley vs Ramírez, Yohan: OUT GB
Valencia, Eduardo vs Ramírez, Yohan: K
Callahan, Brett vs Ramírez, Yohan: K
— Top 7 —
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Vest, Will: OUT AIR
Reynolds, Bryan vs Vest, Will: OUT AIR
Flores Jr., Rafael vs Jansen, Kenley: HR +1 run (4-1)
Horwitz, Spencer vs Jansen, Kenley: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Torkelson, Spencer vs Ramírez, Yohan: OUT AIR
McKinstry, Zach vs Dotel, Wilber: OUT AIR
Peck, John vs Dotel, Wilber: BB
Clark, Max vs Dotel, Wilber: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Gonzales, Nick vs Jansen, Kenley: OUT AIR
Mangum, Jake vs Jansen, Kenley: 1B
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Jansen, Kenley: K
Cook, Billy vs Díaz, Yilber: K
— Bottom 8 —
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Dotel, Wilber: 1B
McGonigle, Kevin vs Mattson, Isaac: OUT AIR
Greene, Riley vs Mattson, Isaac: 2B
Valencia, Eduardo vs Mattson, Isaac: OUT GB
Callahan, Brett vs Mattson, Isaac: 1B +2 runs (4-3)
Torkelson, Spencer vs Mattson, Isaac: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Griffin, Konnor vs Díaz, Yilber: OUT GB
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Díaz, Yilber: BB
Reynolds, Bryan vs Díaz, Yilber: OUT AIR
Flores Jr., Rafael vs Díaz, Yilber: 1B
Horwitz, Spencer vs Díaz, Yilber: BB
Gonzales, Nick vs Sommers, Drew: K
— Bottom 9 —
McKinstry, Zach vs Soto, Gregory: OUT GB
Peck, John vs Soto, Gregory: OUT AIR
Clark, Max vs Soto, Gregory: K