Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Rafael Flores

C · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 232 lb · Age 25

Cards
10
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position C Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2025170300.200.294.333.627
20261631739110.264.331.527.858
2 Seasons1801742110.258.328.509.837
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
90
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
79
Defense6 metrics
38
Speed1 metrics
24
Plate skills10 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
xwOBA preseason0.300
xwOBA current pace0.350
xwOBA rolling p500.322
Observed weight44%
xwOBA
0.277 0.298 0.322 0.346 0.367
wOBA
0.336 0.359 0.384 0.409 0.432
ISO
0.139 0.160 0.183 0.207 0.228
K%
18.5% 22.1% 26.0% 29.9% 33.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
94 +56 vs proj
Exit velocity90.8
87
Hard-hit%46.7%
87 +45 vs proj
xBA0.353
85
xSLG0.723
96
xwOBA0.350
92 +37 vs proj
BB%9.4%
62 +29 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
80
K%27.6%
25
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.1 · C
19
Catcher Throwing-0.6 · C
40
Framing Runs0.2 · C
52
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · C
25
Pop Time1.9 · C
57
Range Runs-0.6 · C
31
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · C
24
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.5% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.8% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
38
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Flores Jr., Rafael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.301 0.350 2026-09-18: 0.3412026-09-19: 0.3412026-09-20: 0.3412026-09-21: 0.3622026-09-22: 0.3622026-09-23: 0.3582026-09-24: 0.3542026-09-25: 0.3542026-09-26: 0.3582026-09-27: 0.3582026-09-28: 0.3502026-09-29: 0.350 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 88%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Flores Jr., Rafael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 52%52%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 79%79%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Flores Jr., Rafael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 87.5%Curveball: 12.5% SL88% · 54 mphprimary pitch SL 88%CU 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Flores Jr., Rafael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ Slider: 88% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 7″ drop, 54.1 mphSL54 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 9″ drop, 48.2 mphCU48 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 3"
Weight232 lb
Debut2025-09-17
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.043
wOBA Δ+0.077

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.0σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.384
xwOBA (deserved)0.350

Flores’s wOBA sits at 0.384, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.350 — a gap of 0.034, -1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 170 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting22026-09-20Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding82026-09-231 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.095
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.307 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection
2026-08-15 vs BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 0 E1-3 | K