Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror receipts Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
The Mirror / Record auto-graded

Every call, graded. No exceptions.

Every pregame simulation we publish gets graded against the final score automatically. Rows are written once and never edited — wins and losses alike. Tracking since 2026-09-18.

Cumulative

2026-09-18 → 2026-09-26

Today's sims →
70–51winner picks
57.9%pick accuracy
0.2353Brier (0.25 = coin flip)
121games graded
Game by game

The ledger

DateGamePickConfResultSim totalMktActualO/U call
2026-09-26 HOU @ ATH HOU 63% ✓ HOU 8.8 -- 15 --
2026-09-26 COL @ CWS CWS 63% ✗ COL 9.3 -- 15 --
2026-09-26 PIT @ DET DET 51% ✓ DET 9.7 -- 7 --
2026-09-26 CLE @ KC KC 59% ✗ CLE 8.5 -- 16 --
2026-09-26 ATL @ MIA MIA 52% ✗ ATL 8.0 -- 11 --
2026-09-26 STL @ MIL MIL 62% ✓ MIL 8.8 -- 5 --
2026-09-26 TEX @ MIN MIN 54% ✗ TEX 7.8 -- 8 --
2026-09-26 TB @ PHI TB 60% ✓ TB 9.1 -- 13 --
2026-09-26 AZ @ SD AZ 57% ✗ SD 8.2 -- 17 --
2026-09-26 LAD @ SF LAD 64% ✓ LAD 6.7 -- 7 --
2026-09-26 LAA @ SEA SEA 62% ✓ SEA 8.1 -- 12 --
2026-09-26 CIN @ TOR TOR 62% ✗ CIN 8.3 -- 6 --
2026-09-26 NYM @ WSH WSH 51% ✗ NYM 7.9 -- 8 --
2026-09-25 HOU @ ATH HOU 64% ✗ ATH 9.1 -- 11 --
2026-09-25 CHC @ BOS CHC 55% ✗ BOS 8.2 -- 2 --
2026-09-25 CHC @ BOS CHC 58% ✗ BOS 7.6 -- 7 --
2026-09-25 COL @ CWS CWS 67% ✓ CWS 9.0 -- 7 --
2026-09-25 PIT @ DET DET 52% ✓ DET 8.5 -- 15 --
2026-09-25 CLE @ KC CLE 54% ✓ CLE 7.8 -- 21 --
2026-09-25 ATL @ MIA ATL 54% ✗ MIA 7.7 -- 3 --
2026-09-25 STL @ MIL MIL 62% ✓ MIL 8.1 -- 12 --
2026-09-25 TEX @ MIN TEX 52% ✗ MIN 7.6 -- 12 --
2026-09-25 BAL @ NYY NYY 53% ✗ BAL 7.6 -- 12 --
2026-09-25 BAL @ NYY NYY 67% ✓ NYY 7.5 -- 9 --
2026-09-25 TB @ PHI PHI 51% ✗ TB 8.4 -- 2 --
2026-09-25 AZ @ SD AZ 51% ✓ AZ 8.2 -- 15 --
2026-09-25 LAD @ SF LAD 69% ✓ LAD 7.4 -- 2 --
2026-09-25 LAA @ SEA LAA 50% ✓ LAA 7.1 -- 12 --
2026-09-25 CIN @ TOR TOR 64% ✓ TOR 7.7 -- 11 --
2026-09-25 NYM @ WSH WSH 56% ✓ WSH 7.4 -- 13 --
2026-09-24 HOU @ ATH HOU 66% ✓ HOU 9.7 -- 12 --
2026-09-24 CIN @ ATL ATL 71% ✗ CIN 9.3 -- 13 --
2026-09-24 CLE @ BOS BOS 55% ✗ CLE 7.1 -- 1 --
2026-09-24 MIA @ CHC CHC 60% ✓ CHC 8.3 -- 3 --
2026-09-24 AZ @ COL AZ 65% ✓ AZ 9.9 -- 20 --
2026-09-24 CWS @ KC CWS 54% ✓ CWS 8.9 -- 10 --
2026-09-24 SD @ LAD LAD 61% ✗ SD 8.0 -- 6 --
2026-09-24 TB @ NYY NYY 56% ✓ NYY 7.2 -- 10 --
2026-09-24 MIL @ PHI MIL 54% ✓ MIL 9.1 -- 6 --
2026-09-24 STL @ PIT PIT 61% ✓ PIT 7.5 -- 3 --
2026-09-24 LAA @ SEA SEA 65% ✗ LAA 8.2 -- 10 --
2026-09-24 NYM @ TEX NYM 50% ✗ TEX 9.1 -- 4 --
2026-09-23 LAA @ ATH LAA 56% ✗ ATH 8.1 -- 10 --
2026-09-23 CIN @ ATL ATL 71% ✓ ATL 7.1 -- 5 --
2026-09-23 TOR @ BAL TOR 53% ✗ BAL 7.8 -- 6 --
2026-09-23 TOR @ BAL TOR 55% ✗ BAL 7.7 -- 6 --
2026-09-23 CLE @ BOS BOS 55% ✓ BOS 6.9 -- 1 --
2026-09-23 MIA @ CHC CHC 58% ✗ MIA 8.8 -- 5 --
2026-09-23 AZ @ COL AZ 56% ✓ AZ 11.0 -- 8 --
2026-09-23 WSH @ DET DET 57% ✗ WSH 8.3 -- 6 --
2026-09-23 CWS @ KC CWS 57% ✗ KC 8.9 -- 9 --
2026-09-23 SD @ LAD LAD 61% ✗ SD 8.1 -- 6 --
2026-09-23 TB @ NYY NYY 56% ✓ NYY 8.6 -- 11 --
2026-09-23 MIL @ PHI MIL 69% ✓ MIL 8.2 -- 5 --
2026-09-23 STL @ PIT PIT 66% ✗ STL 7.5 -- 6 --
2026-09-23 MIN @ SF MIN 57% ✓ MIN 8.3 -- 6 --
2026-09-23 HOU @ SEA HOU 58% ✗ SEA 9.1 -- 11 --
2026-09-23 NYM @ TEX NYM 55% ✓ NYM 9.5 -- 9 --
2026-09-22 LAA @ ATH ATH 56% ✓ ATH 8.4 -- 16 --
2026-09-22 CIN @ ATL ATL 58% ✗ CIN 9.0 -- 4 --
2026-09-22 CLE @ BOS CLE 56% ✓ CLE 6.4 -- 5 --
2026-09-22 MIA @ CHC CHC 58% ✗ MIA 8.4 -- 10 --
2026-09-22 AZ @ COL AZ 63% ✓ AZ 10.0 -- 9 --
2026-09-22 WSH @ DET DET 59% ✗ WSH 8.3 -- 4 --
2026-09-22 CWS @ KC KC 52% ✗ CWS 8.3 -- 25 --
2026-09-22 SD @ LAD LAD 55% ✓ LAD 8.3 -- 7 --
2026-09-22 TB @ NYY NYY 56% ✓ NYY 8.3 -- 2 --
2026-09-22 TB @ NYY NYY 57% ✗ TB 6.7 -- 7 --
2026-09-22 MIL @ PHI PHI 50% ✓ PHI 8.2 -- 10 --
2026-09-22 STL @ PIT PIT 62% ✓ PIT 7.3 -- 2 --
2026-09-22 MIN @ SF SF 53% ✗ MIN 7.0 -- 5 --
2026-09-22 HOU @ SEA SEA 54% ✗ HOU 8.4 -- 7 --
2026-09-22 NYM @ TEX TEX 57% ✗ NYM 9.5 -- 9 --
2026-09-21 TOR @ BAL TOR 54% ✗ BAL 7.5 -- 7 --
2026-09-21 WSH @ DET DET 60% ✓ DET 8.0 -- 11 --
2026-09-21 MIN @ SF MIN 51% ✗ SF 7.5 -- 7 --
2026-09-20 NYY @ AZ AZ 59% ✓ AZ 8.0 -- 12 --
2026-09-20 MIL @ BAL MIL 73% ✓ MIL 7.8 -- 3 --
2026-09-20 DET @ CWS DET 56% ✗ CWS 7.8 -- 9 --
2026-09-20 CHC @ CIN CHC 53% ✓ CHC 11.8 -- 10 --
2026-09-20 ATH @ CLE CLE 66% ✓ CLE 7.9 -- 1 --
2026-09-20 SEA @ COL SEA 55% ✓ SEA 10.8 -- 3 --
2026-09-20 ATL @ HOU HOU 52% ✗ ATL 8.3 -- 6 --
2026-09-20 MIN @ LAA LAA 54% ✗ MIN 9.1 -- 8 --
2026-09-20 SF @ LAD LAD 64% ✓ LAD 8.8 -- 4 --
2026-09-20 PHI @ NYM NYM 54% ✗ PHI 8.1 -- 9 --
2026-09-20 KC @ PIT PIT 62% ✓ PIT 7.8 -- 7 --
2026-09-20 MIA @ SD SD 51% ✓ SD 8.5 -- 10 --
2026-09-20 WSH @ STL STL 59% ✓ STL 9.7 -- 8 --
2026-09-20 BOS @ TB TB 70% ✓ TB 9.0 -- 6 --
2026-09-20 TOR @ TEX TEX 54% ✗ TOR 7.0 -- 9 --
2026-09-19 NYY @ AZ AZ 51% ✓ AZ 6.8 -- 8 --
2026-09-19 MIL @ BAL MIL 54% ✓ MIL 8.8 -- 1 --
2026-09-19 DET @ CWS CWS 54% ✓ CWS 8.0 -- 4 --
2026-09-19 CHC @ CIN CHC 56% ✓ CHC 10.8 -- 7 --
2026-09-19 ATH @ CLE CLE 60% ✓ CLE 9.2 -- 18 --
2026-09-19 SEA @ COL SEA 55% ✗ COL 10.1 -- 8 --
2026-09-19 ATL @ HOU HOU 57% ✗ ATL 8.7 -- 9 --
2026-09-19 MIN @ LAA LAA 57% ✓ LAA 7.5 -- 11 --
2026-09-19 SF @ LAD LAD 67% ✓ LAD 8.0 -- 14 --
2026-09-19 PHI @ NYM NYM 58% ✓ NYM 9.0 -- 13 --
2026-09-19 KC @ PIT PIT 57% ✓ PIT 8.4 -- 11 --
2026-09-19 MIA @ SD SD 57% ✓ SD 7.4 -- 13 --
2026-09-19 WSH @ STL WSH 55% ✓ WSH 8.0 -- 13 --
2026-09-19 BOS @ TB TB 60% ✓ TB 8.9 -- 3 --
2026-09-19 TOR @ TEX TEX 53% ✓ TEX 8.5 -- 8 --
2026-09-18 NYY @ AZ AZ 55% ✗ NYY 7.5 -- 11 --
2026-09-18 MIL @ BAL MIL 57% ✓ MIL 8.7 -- 11 --
2026-09-18 DET @ CWS DET 50% ✓ DET 8.0 -- 19 --
2026-09-18 CHC @ CIN CHC 53% ✗ CIN 8.6 -- 10 --
2026-09-18 ATH @ CLE CLE 61% ✓ CLE 8.7 -- 8 --
2026-09-18 SEA @ COL SEA 57% ✓ SEA 9.3 -- 9 --
2026-09-18 ATL @ HOU HOU 58% ✗ ATL 8.5 -- 8 --
2026-09-18 MIN @ LAA MIN 57% ✓ MIN 8.9 -- 3 --
2026-09-18 SF @ LAD LAD 67% ✓ LAD 7.8 -- 10 --
2026-09-18 PHI @ NYM NYM 54% ✓ NYM 9.1 -- 9 --
2026-09-18 KC @ PIT PIT 64% ✓ PIT 7.8 -- 13 --
2026-09-18 MIA @ SD SD 58% ✓ SD 7.7 -- 10 --
2026-09-18 WSH @ STL STL 50% ✗ WSH 8.6 -- 10 --
2026-09-18 BOS @ TB TB 65% ✗ BOS 7.9 -- 6 --
At-bat calls

Live tracker accuracy, plate appearance by plate appearance

Every PA prediction made by the live tracker, graded against what actually happened. 76533 at-bats and counting.

22.5% / 22.7%hit prob: predicted / actual
21.9% / 21.9%K prob: predicted / actual
76533at-bats graded
When we said HIT...nWe saidIt happened
0%-20%1456918.4%20.5%
20%-25%4731122.5%22.7%
25%-30%1415726.5%24.7%
30%-100%49631.0%27.4%
When we said STRIKEOUT...nWe saidIt happened
0%-15%857012.8%11.8%
15%-22%3242918.7%18.9%
22%-30%2833825.3%25.6%
30%-100%719633.4%32.6%