Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
64
Matched
234
Lineups
261
HR BOARD 2026-09-27 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
 13.4%Valinor 9.7%market +3.4pp
P 10.1
F 13.8
V 13.4
3.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
02
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
 13.6%Valinor 10.4%market +2.9pp
P 13.9
F 10.7
V 13.6
3.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
03
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
 16.3%Valinor 13.3%market +2.5pp
P 15.8
F 15.6
V 16.3
0.8pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
04
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
 12.0%Valinor 9.3%market +2.4pp
P 12.9
F 14.4
V 12.0
2.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
05
Roman Anthony BOS
IN
BOS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 13.1%Valinor 11.1%market +1.6pp
P 12.4
F 14.5
V 13.1
2.1pp 0.864xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
06
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
 13.7%Valinor 12.3%market +1.0pp
P 11.2
F 13.8
V 13.7
2.6pp 0.926xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
07
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 14.5%Valinor 13.5%market +0.5pp
P 12.0
F 13.4
V 14.5
2.5pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
08
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 11.5%Valinor 10.9%market +0.3pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 11.5
1.9pp 0.864xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
09
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 11.1%Valinor 10.7%market -0.1pp
P 9.4
F 13.3
V 11.1
3.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
10
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
 14.8%Valinor 14.5%market -0.3pp
P 16.3
F 15.3
V 14.8
1.6pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
11
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
 13.9%Valinor 13.7%market -0.3pp
P 11.4
F 12.2
V 13.9
2.5pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 605 avg 3 books
12
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 7
 9.7%Valinor 9.7%market -0.4pp
P 11.3
F 13.3
V 9.7
3.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
13
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 6
 11.0%Valinor 11.0%market -0.4pp
P 16.0
F 15.6
V 11.0
4.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
14
Jackson Merrill SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
 15.9%Valinor 15.7%market -0.4pp
P 15.1
F 12.2
V 15.9
3.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
15
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 10.9%Valinor 11.0%market -0.6pp
P 10.6
F 13.8
V 10.9
3.2pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
16
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 14.4%market -0.7pp
P 14.0
F 13.8
V 14.2
0.5pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
17
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 6
 11.9%Valinor 12.4%market -1.0pp
P 11.3
F 13.8
V 11.9
2.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
18
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
 15.4%Valinor 16.0%market -1.1pp
P 16.7
F 15.6
V 15.4
1.3pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
19
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 14.1%Valinor 14.9%market -1.3pp
P 13.9
F 14.4
V 14.1
0.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
20
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 6
 12.1%Valinor 13.0%market -1.3pp
P 12.3
F 10.7
V 12.1
1.6pp 0.926xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
21
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 14.0%Valinor 15.3%market -1.8pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 14.0
3.0pp 0.926xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
22
Austin Hays CWS
IN
CWS vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
 9.7%Valinor 12.2%market -2.5pp
P 14.1
F 15.3
V 9.7
5.6pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
23
Alec Burleson STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
 11.2%Valinor 13.3%market -2.6pp
P 13.7
F 15.3
V 11.2
4.1pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
24
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 9.5%Valinor 11.7%market -2.7pp
P 12.9
F 14.5
V 9.5
5.0pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
25
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 3
 17.1%Valinor 25.1%market -8.9pp
P 13.5
F 12.0
V 17.1
5.1pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 285 avg 3 books
26
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 21.5%market -9.4pp
P 12.6
F 14.5
V 12.9
1.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
27
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 14.8%Valinor 26.5%market -12.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.8
V 14.8
1.2pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
28
Victor Scott II STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
 10.4%Valinor 7.7%market +2.4pp
P 4.5
F 0.0
V 10.4
10.4pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Chandler Simpson TB
Lineup pending
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 10.2%Valinor 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 2.1
F 0.0
V 10.2
10.2pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
 10.2%Valinor 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.8
F 10.7
V 10.2
3.9pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 18.4%Valinor 15.9%market +1.9pp
P 15.9
F 15.6
V 18.4
2.8pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
32
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 5
 15.6%Valinor 14.4%market +0.6pp
P 14.4
F 14.4
V 15.6
1.2pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
33
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 17.1%Valinor 16.3%market +0.2pp
P 14.1
F 15.3
V 17.1
3.0pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
34
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 10.2%Valinor 10.1%market -0.3pp
P 10.9
F 13.8
V 10.2
3.5pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
35
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 4
 15.7%Valinor 15.6%market -0.4pp
P 12.0
F 13.8
V 15.7
3.7pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
36
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 12.5%Valinor 12.5%market -0.5pp
P 11.2
F 13.8
V 12.5
2.6pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
37
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 10.9%Valinor 11.0%market -0.5pp
P 9.6
F 5.3
V 10.9
5.6pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
38
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 13.6%Valinor 14.3%market -1.3pp
P 13.4
F 13.8
V 13.6
0.4pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
39
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
 15.7%Valinor 16.7%market -1.6pp
P 15.8
F 15.3
V 15.7
0.5pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
40
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
 11.4%Valinor 12.5%market -1.6pp
P 14.5
F 14.5
V 11.4
3.1pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
41
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 14.9%Valinor 16.0%market -1.7pp
P 15.3
F 13.8
V 14.9
1.5pp 0.864xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
42
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 17.6%Valinor 18.8%market -1.8pp
P 13.4
F 15.3
V 17.6
4.2pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
43
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 15.0%Valinor 16.4%market -1.9pp
P 10.3
F 13.3
V 15.0
4.7pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
44
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 12.1%Valinor 13.6%market -2.0pp
P 12.4
F 13.8
V 12.1
1.7pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
45
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 11.3%Valinor 13.3%market -2.0pp
P 13.7
F 15.6
V 11.3
4.3pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
46
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 14.6%Valinor 16.2%market -2.2pp
P 11.1
F 13.8
V 14.6
3.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
47
Yandy Díaz TB
Lineup pending
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 12.6%Valinor 14.4%market -2.3pp
P 14.0
F 15.6
V 12.6
3.0pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
48
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 11.8%Valinor 13.6%market -2.4pp
P 11.4
F 13.3
V 11.8
1.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
49
Drake Baldwin ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 13.7%Valinor 15.6%market -2.4pp
P 10.5
F 13.8
V 13.7
3.3pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
50
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 16.8%Valinor 18.6%market -2.5pp
P 13.8
F 14.4
V 16.8
2.9pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
51
Ben Rice NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
 13.8%Valinor 15.7%market -2.5pp
P 12.1
F 14.5
V 13.8
2.5pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
52
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 1
 16.0%Valinor 18.2%market -2.8pp
P 15.1
F 14.4
V 16.0
1.6pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
53
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
 16.1%Valinor 18.4%market -2.9pp
P 14.8
F 14.5
V 16.1
1.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
54
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 15.5%Valinor 17.9%market -3.1pp
P 16.6
F 15.6
V 15.5
1.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
55
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 16.7%Valinor 19.1%market -3.1pp
P 11.8
F 13.8
V 16.7
4.9pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
56
Cody Bellinger NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
 14.7%Valinor 17.2%market -3.1pp
P 15.7
F 14.5
V 14.7
1.1pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
57
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2
 13.4%Valinor 16.7%market -3.9pp
P 15.8
F 15.6
V 13.4
2.5pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
58
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 15.4%Valinor 18.8%market -4.0pp
P 13.0
F 13.8
V 15.4
2.4pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
59
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 14.9%Valinor 19.1%market -4.9pp
P 14.9
F 14.4
V 14.9
0.5pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
60
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
 16.3%Valinor 20.5%market -5.0pp
P 15.1
F 15.3
V 16.3
1.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
61
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
 14.3%Valinor 18.8%market -5.2pp
P 10.2
F 13.3
V 14.3
4.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
62
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 15.4%Valinor 21.2%market -6.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.8
V 15.4
1.7pp 0.926xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
63
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
 15.1%Valinor 21.2%market -6.9pp
P 14.2
F 13.8
V 15.1
1.3pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
64
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor 22.0%market -7.1pp
P 14.7
F 14.5
V 15.7
1.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

0 value rows
No top rows

The saved artifact has no ranked HR rows for this view.

Data context

0 sample flags
Status1642roster/transaction rows
Lineups261confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.