Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Alec Burleson

STL · Hitter
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs MILJacob Misiorowski
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.7
F 15.3
V 11.2
Model 16.6% Market 13.3% Gap +2.8pp
DraftKings 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.6% Market 77.3% Gap +16.3pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
89 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity92.0
93
Hard-hit%50.3%
94 +25 vs proj
xBA0.361
89
xSLG0.653
90
xwOBA0.374
97
BB%8.3%
49 +16 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%18.0%
78
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
46
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
47
Range Runs0.3 · 1B
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 1B
31
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
11
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherJacob Misiorowski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)