Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Nick Castellanos

SD · Hitter
Projected · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs AZMichael Soroka
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 14 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 13.8
V 14.2
Model 19.1% Market 14.2% Gap +4.3pp
FanDuel 575 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.0% Market 77.0% Gap +16.3pp
BetMGM -335 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
54
Exit velocity88.2
53
Hard-hit%36.6%
41
xBA0.346
80
xSLG0.568
71
xwOBA0.285
30
BB%3.6%
6
Bat speed68.0
30
K%27.0%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · RF
1
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
25
Arm Runs-0.6 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-3.1 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · RF
44

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherMichael Soroka
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)