Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Ketel Marte

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs SDRandy Vásquez
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.1
F 15.3
V 16.3
Model 18.3% Market 21.1% Gap -2.8pp
BetMGM 375 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 49.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.5% Market 48.3% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +1.3pp
FanDuel 5000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
82
Exit velocity89.9
77
Hard-hit%42.5%
70
xBA0.327
61
xSLG0.539
62
xwOBA0.345
90
BB%8.2%
48 -22 vs proj
Bat speed73.4
91
K%13.6%
94
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
68
Arm Strength91.5 · 2B
80
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs2.9 · 2B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 2B
57
Bolts1.0 · 2B
11
Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B
33
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.402
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherRandy Vásquez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)