Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Iván Herrera

STL · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs MILJacob Misiorowski
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 14.5
V 11.4
Model 13.1% Market 12.6% Gap +0.1pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 50.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.1% Market 47.2% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
40 -30 vs proj
Exit velocity89.3
69
Hard-hit%40.7%
60 -19 vs proj
xBA0.321
54
xSLG0.500
51
xwOBA0.334
82
BB%10.4%
74 +16 vs proj
Bat speed71.3
74
K%19.3%
71
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.2 · C
61
Catcher Throwing-4.5 · C
1
Framing Runs-1.0 · C
39
Pop Time2.0 · C
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.0 · DH
18
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
94
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
19

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.016
Opposing pitcherJacob Misiorowski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)