Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
64
Matched
234
Lineups
261
HR BOARD 2026-09-27 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
 14.4%Fangorn 9.3%market +5.1pp
P 12.9
F 14.4
V 12.0
2.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 6
 15.6%Fangorn 11.0%market +4.6pp
P 16.0
F 15.6
V 11.0
4.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
 13.8%Fangorn 9.7%market +4.1pp
P 10.1
F 13.8
V 13.4
3.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
04
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 7
 13.3%Fangorn 9.6%market +3.7pp
P 11.3
F 13.3
V 9.7
3.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
05
Austin Hays CWS
IN
CWS vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
 15.3%Fangorn 11.7%market +3.6pp
P 14.1
F 15.3
V 9.7
5.6pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
06
Roman Anthony BOS
IN
BOS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 14.5%Fangorn 11.1%market +3.4pp
P 12.4
F 14.5
V 13.1
2.1pp 0.864xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
07
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 14.5%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.8pp
P 12.9
F 14.5
V 9.5
5.0pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
08
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 13.8%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.8pp
P 10.6
F 13.8
V 10.9
3.2pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
09
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.6pp
P 9.4
F 13.3
V 11.1
3.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
10
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 10.9%market +2.6pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 11.5
1.9pp 0.864xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
11
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
 15.6%Fangorn 13.3%market +2.3pp
P 15.8
F 15.6
V 16.3
0.8pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
12
Alec Burleson STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
 15.3%Fangorn 13.3%market +2.0pp
P 13.7
F 15.3
V 11.2
4.1pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
13
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
 13.8%Fangorn 12.3%market +1.5pp
P 11.2
F 13.8
V 13.7
2.6pp 0.926xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
14
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 6
 13.8%Fangorn 12.4%market +1.4pp
P 11.3
F 13.8
V 11.9
2.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
15
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
 15.3%Fangorn 14.4%market +0.9pp
P 16.3
F 15.3
V 14.8
1.6pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
16
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 15.6%Fangorn 15.0%market +0.6pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 14.0
3.0pp 0.926xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
17
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
 10.7%Fangorn 10.4%market +0.3pp
P 13.9
F 10.7
V 13.6
3.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
18
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.7pp
P 12.0
F 13.4
V 14.5
2.5pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
19
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
 15.6%Fangorn 16.4%market -0.8pp
P 16.7
F 15.6
V 15.4
1.3pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
20
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 14.4%Fangorn 15.4%market -0.9pp
P 13.9
F 14.4
V 14.1
0.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
21
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
 13.8%Fangorn 14.9%market -1.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.8
V 14.2
0.5pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
22
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.0pp
P 11.4
F 12.2
V 13.9
2.5pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
23
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 6
 10.7%Fangorn 13.4%market -2.7pp
P 12.3
F 10.7
V 12.1
1.6pp 0.926xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
24
Jackson Merrill SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
 12.2%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.0pp
P 15.1
F 12.2
V 15.9
3.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
25
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 13.8%Fangorn 10.0%market +3.8pp
P 10.9
F 13.8
V 10.2
3.5pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
26
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
 10.7%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 6.8
F 10.7
V 10.2
3.9pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 15.6%Fangorn 12.7%market +2.8pp
P 13.7
F 15.6
V 11.3
4.3pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
28
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
 14.5%Fangorn 12.5%market +2.1pp
P 14.5
F 14.5
V 11.4
3.1pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
29
Yandy Díaz TB
Lineup pending
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 15.6%Fangorn 14.2%market +1.3pp
P 14.0
F 15.6
V 12.6
3.0pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
30
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 13.8%Fangorn 12.5%market +1.3pp
P 11.2
F 13.8
V 12.5
2.6pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
31
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 13.8%Fangorn 13.5%market +0.3pp
P 12.4
F 13.8
V 12.1
1.7pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
32
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 5
 14.4%Fangorn 15.0%market -0.6pp
P 14.4
F 14.4
V 15.6
1.2pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
33
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 14.2%market -0.9pp
P 11.4
F 13.3
V 11.8
1.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
34
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 13.8%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.0pp
P 13.4
F 13.8
V 13.6
0.4pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
35
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 15.6%Fangorn 16.7%market -1.1pp
P 15.9
F 15.6
V 18.4
2.8pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
36
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2
 15.6%Fangorn 17.2%market -1.7pp
P 15.8
F 15.6
V 13.4
2.5pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
37
Ben Rice NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
 14.5%Fangorn 16.3%market -1.7pp
P 12.1
F 14.5
V 13.8
2.5pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
38
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 15.3%Fangorn 17.1%market -1.8pp
P 14.1
F 15.3
V 17.1
3.0pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
39
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
 15.3%Fangorn 17.2%market -2.0pp
P 15.8
F 15.3
V 15.7
0.5pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
40
Drake Baldwin ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 13.8%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.2pp
P 10.5
F 13.8
V 13.7
3.3pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
41
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 4
 13.8%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.4pp
P 12.0
F 13.8
V 15.7
3.7pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
42
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 13.8%Fangorn 16.5%market -2.8pp
P 15.3
F 13.8
V 14.9
1.5pp 0.864xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
43
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 15.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.8pp
P 16.6
F 15.6
V 15.5
1.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
44
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 13.8%Fangorn 16.7%market -2.9pp
P 11.1
F 13.8
V 14.6
3.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
45
Cody Bellinger NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
 14.5%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.2pp
P 15.7
F 14.5
V 14.7
1.1pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
46
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 10.3
F 13.3
V 15.0
4.7pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
47
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 15.3%Fangorn 19.2%market -4.0pp
P 13.4
F 15.3
V 17.6
4.2pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
48
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 1
 14.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -4.3pp
P 15.1
F 14.4
V 16.0
1.6pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
49
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
 14.5%Fangorn 18.9%market -4.3pp
P 14.8
F 14.5
V 16.1
1.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
50
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 14.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -4.8pp
P 13.8
F 14.4
V 16.8
2.9pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
51
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 14.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.2pp
P 14.9
F 14.4
V 14.9
0.5pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
52
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 13.8%Fangorn 19.4%market -5.6pp
P 13.0
F 13.8
V 15.4
2.4pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
53
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
 15.3%Fangorn 21.1%market -5.8pp
P 15.1
F 15.3
V 16.3
1.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
54
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 13.8%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.8pp
P 11.8
F 13.8
V 16.7
4.9pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
55
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.9pp
P 10.2
F 13.3
V 14.3
4.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
56
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 5.3%Fangorn 11.4%market -6.1pp
P 9.6
F 5.3
V 10.9
5.6pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
57
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 14.5%Fangorn 22.0%market -7.4pp
P 12.6
F 14.5
V 12.9
1.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
58
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2
 14.5%Fangorn 22.5%market -7.9pp
P 14.7
F 14.5
V 15.7
1.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
59
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
 13.8%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.0pp
P 14.2
F 13.8
V 15.1
1.3pp 0.946xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
60
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 13.8%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.0pp
P 13.8
F 13.8
V 15.4
1.7pp 0.926xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
61
Chandler Simpson TB
Lineup pending
TB vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 2.1
F 0.0
V 10.2
10.2pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
62
Victor Scott II STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 4.5
F 0.0
V 10.4
10.4pp 0.906xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
63
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 13.8%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.3pp
P 13.5
F 13.8
V 14.8
1.2pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
64
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 3
 12.0%Fangorn 25.6%market -13.6pp
P 13.5
F 12.0
V 17.1
5.1pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

0 value rows
No top rows

The saved artifact has no ranked HR rows for this view.

Data context

0 sample flags
Status1642roster/transaction rows
Lineups261confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.