Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Jonathan Aranda

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.7
F 15.6
V 11.3
Model 15.0% Market 12.8% Gap +1.7pp
DraftKings 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 57.5% Market 76.7% Gap +16.2pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +5.9pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
72
Exit velocity91.1
88
Hard-hit%45.9%
84
xBA0.352
84
xSLG0.607
82
xwOBA0.343
88
BB%10.1%
70
Bat speed68.7
36
K%24.2%
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · 1B
99
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
47
Range Runs0.1 · 1B
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.4 · 1B
4
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.309 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)