Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs TBNick Martinez
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.5
F 13.8
V 14.8
Model 17.2% Market 26.5% Gap +6.6pp
DraftKings 265 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 45.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 45.2% Market 44.4% Gap +5.6pp
FanDuel 165 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +7.9pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
90
Exit velocity92.3
95
Hard-hit%49.5%
93
xBA0.380
96
xSLG0.784
99
xwOBA0.363
95
BB%14.7%
97
Bat speed74.3
96
K%31.4%
12
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
73
Arm Runs-0.2 · 1B
Small sample
Range Runs-0.6 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.6 · DH
11
Sprint Speed25.6 · DH
11
SB Success Rate66.7% · DH
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.436
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherNick Martinez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)