Mithrandir Metrics

PITCHER OUTS 2026-09-27 · saved artifact ROWS 6 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-09-27

Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

773 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Pitcher Outs board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Outs proj	IP	BF	Recent K	Recent BB	Best line
01	Logan GilbertSEA	SEA vs LAApitcher-friendly	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.6%Under prob · Palantir	40.9%no-vig	+24.49%	15.84count	5.28leash	22.283volume	0.2822traffic	0.0746traffic	FanDuel -174 avg 1 books
02	Shane BazBAL	BAL vs NYYneutral	P 48.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	48.1%Over prob · Palantir	39.4%no-vig	+20.65%	16.43count	5.48leash	23.272volume	0.2268traffic	0.0834traffic	FanDuel 136 avg 1 books
03	Zack WheelerPHI	PHI vs TBneutral	P 47.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.3%Under prob · Palantir	47.2%no-vig	+2.86%	17.85count	5.95leash	24.393volume	0.3163traffic	0.0931traffic	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
04	Dean KremerMIN	MIN vs TEXneutral	P 48.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 15.5	51.8%Under prob · Palantir	50.6%no-vig	+12.19%	16.79count	5.60leash	21.792volume	0.2338traffic	0.0964traffic	FanDuel -112 avg 1 books
05	Yusei KikuchiLAA	LAA vs SEApitcher-friendly	P 47.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 15.5	52.2%Under prob · Palantir	51.4%no-vig	+4.67%	16.11count	5.37leash	22.73volume	0.23traffic	0.086traffic	FanDuel -108 avg 1 books
06	Janson JunkMIA	MIA vs ATLpitcher-friendly	P 49.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 13.5	49.5%Over prob · Palantir	49.4%no-vig	+27.43%	15.95count	5.32leash	20.45volume	0.1628traffic	0.0589traffic	FanDuel -112 avg 1 books