Mithrandir Metrics
Game markets 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Game market · model-only

NRFI and YRFI.

First-inning run probabilities with model and market context kept distinct.

Games
15
Status
Model Only
Date
2026-09-27
NRFI / YRFI model only METHOD model only ROWS 15
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Model-only view

Model-only view. Live NRFI/YRFI prop lines from sportsbooks are not currently captured in our data pipeline. The probabilities shown are our model's first-inning projection based on starter quality, top-of-lineup quality, park, and weather. When line data is available, we will add the model-market gap.

First-inning board
#GameStartersModel NRFIModel YRFI1st inn runsRead
01
NYM @ WSH822679
Sean ManaeaDJ Herz
 47.9% 52.1% 0.74 model onlymodel-only projection
02
BAL @ NYY823490
Shane BazElmer Rodríguez
 48.0% 52.0% 0.73 model onlymodel-only projection
03
CHC @ BOS824705
Shota ImanagaTanner Houck
 49.3% 50.7% 0.71 model onlymodel-only projection
04
HOU @ ATH824948
Peter LambertSeth Johnson
 47.1% 52.9% 0.75 model onlymodel-only projection
05
LAD @ SF823164
Jack DreyerCarson Seymour
 49.3% 50.7% 0.71 model onlymodel-only projection
06
TB @ PHI823408
Nick MartinezZack Wheeler
 49.6% 50.4% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
07
CIN @ TOR822761
Brandon WilliamsonMax Scherzer
 46.3% 53.7% 0.77 model onlymodel-only projection
08
CLE @ KC824055
Parker MessickDaniel Lynch IV
 49.2% 50.8% 0.71 model onlymodel-only projection
09
PIT @ DET824217
Jared JonesRiver Ryan
 50.1% 49.9% 0.69 model onlymodel-only projection
10
AZ @ SD823246
Michael SorokaRandy Vásquez
 49.6% 50.4% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
11
LAA @ SEA823084
Yusei KikuchiLogan Gilbert
 48.9% 51.1% 0.72 model onlymodel-only projection
12
TEX @ MIN823650
MacKenzie GoreDean Kremer
 46.4% 53.6% 0.77 model onlymodel-only projection
13
COL @ CWS824542
Kyle FreelandAnthony Kay
 47.6% 52.4% 0.74 model onlymodel-only projection
14
ATL @ MIA823814
JR RitchieJanson Junk
 49.8% 50.2% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
15
STL @ MIL823731
Andre PallanteJacob Misiorowski
 50.4% 49.6% 0.69 model onlymodel-only projection