Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-27

Dean Kremer

MIN · SP · throws R · age 30
Projected starter Opp K 21.8% Neutral
MatchupMIN vs TEXopponent
Sample--career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 51.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.4% Market -- Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 48.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.2% Market 52.8% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel -112 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
70
ERA4.97
26
BB%8.9%
50 -20 vs proj
K%25.0%
70 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
36
Barrel allowed10.6%
10 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
20
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
66
Whiff%26.7%
80 +46 vs proj

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range18.0% to 26.3%
Opponent K21.8%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)