Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-27

Logan Gilbert

SEA · SP · throws R · age 29
Projected starter Opp K 25.4% Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs LAAopponent
Sample--career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts6.5
P 49.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.5% Market -- Gap +9.4pp
FanDuel -166 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs17.5
P 47.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.4% Market 63.5% Gap +11.7pp
FanDuel -174 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
83
ERA3.81
59
BB%6.5%
85
K%26.5%
79
xwOBA allowed0.297
72
Barrel allowed10.1%
14 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed41.2%
30
Whiff%27.8%
86

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range21.9% to 33.6%
Opponent K25.4%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)