Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-27

Shane Baz

BAL · SP · throws R · age 27
Projected starter Opp K 22.8% Neutral
MatchupBAL vs NYYopponent
Sample--career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts5.5
P 40.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 40.0% Market -- Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 124 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 48.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.1% Market 42.4% Gap +8.7pp
FanDuel 136 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
49
ERA4.11
49
BB%8.0%
62
K%20.2%
36 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
45
Barrel allowed6.8%
61 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
72
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
31
Whiff%19.1%
20 -44 vs proj

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range19.8% to 29.0%
Opponent K22.8%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)