Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
COL 2, CWS 4. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
COL 2, CWS 4
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
2 – 4final score
6total runs
57% → 100%CWS win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox
Freeland, Kyle vs Kay, Anthony · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
COL 43.2%CWS 56.8%
4.55 – 5.0mean score
9.55mean total
47%NRFI
10.0%extra innings
5.38 / 4.93starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
COL (gold) vs CWS (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
COL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCarthy, Jake | 4.89 | 1.425 | 0.108 | 2.12 | 0.278 | 0.864 | 0.488 |
| Norby, Connor | 4.772 | 1.176 | 0.101 | 1.732 | 0.47 | 1.326 | 0.504 |
| Goodman, Hunter | 4.66 | 1.142 | 0.264 | 2.272 | 0.362 | 1.371 | 0.792 |
| Carrigg, Cole | 4.548 | 1.212 | 0.115 | 1.871 | 0.344 | 1.095 | 0.577 |
| Karros, Kyle | 4.448 | 1.051 | 0.101 | 1.59 | 0.469 | 1.029 | 0.493 |
| Amador, Adael | 4.343 | 1.025 | 0.129 | 1.655 | 0.42 | 0.869 | 0.526 |
| Johnston, Troy | 4.239 | 1.109 | 0.051 | 1.487 | 0.359 | 0.935 | 0.42 |
| Beck, Jordan | 4.122 | 0.85 | 0.05 | 1.165 | 0.338 | 1.251 | 0.35 |
| Tovar, Ezequiel | 4.012 | 0.857 | 0.089 | 1.304 | 0.275 | 1.085 | 0.402 |
Projected batting lines
CWS per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grichuk, Randal | 4.688 | 1.468 | 0.229 | 2.591 | 0.232 | 1.014 | 0.64 |
| Pham, Tommy | 4.572 | 1.144 | 0.154 | 1.834 | 0.343 | 1.131 | 0.508 |
| Murakami, Munetaka | 4.457 | 1.071 | 0.296 | 2.238 | 0.504 | 1.455 | 0.724 |
| Doyle, Brenton | 4.352 | 1.286 | 0.112 | 1.884 | 0.238 | 1.191 | 0.543 |
| Antonacci, Sam | 4.244 | 1.394 | 0.081 | 1.905 | 0.27 | 0.645 | 0.569 |
| Montgomery, Braden | 4.14 | 1.099 | 0.097 | 1.609 | 0.312 | 0.83 | 0.529 |
| Montgomery, Colson | 4.038 | 0.96 | 0.199 | 1.782 | 0.282 | 1.369 | 0.636 |
| Acuña, Luisangel | 3.927 | 1.094 | 0.07 | 1.476 | 0.193 | 0.79 | 0.428 |
| Romo, Drew | 3.812 | 0.771 | 0.126 | 1.296 | 0.281 | 0.901 | 0.422 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
McCarthy, Jake vs Kay, Anthony: OUT GB
Norby, Connor vs Kay, Anthony: OUT GB
Goodman, Hunter vs Kay, Anthony: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Grichuk, Randal vs Freeland, Kyle: 1B
Pham, Tommy vs Freeland, Kyle: OUT AIR
Murakami, Munetaka vs Freeland, Kyle: BB
Doyle, Brenton vs Freeland, Kyle: OUT GB
Antonacci, Sam vs Freeland, Kyle: K
— Top 2 —
Carrigg, Cole vs Kay, Anthony: K
Karros, Kyle vs Kay, Anthony: OUT AIR
Amador, Adael vs Kay, Anthony: K
— Bottom 2 —
Montgomery, Braden vs Freeland, Kyle: 1B
Montgomery, Colson vs Freeland, Kyle: OUT AIR
Acuña, Luisangel vs Freeland, Kyle: OUT AIR
Romo, Drew vs Freeland, Kyle: K
— Top 3 —
Johnston, Troy vs Kay, Anthony: OUT GB
Beck, Jordan vs Kay, Anthony: HR +1 run (1-0)
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Kay, Anthony: K
McCarthy, Jake vs Kay, Anthony: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Grichuk, Randal vs Freeland, Kyle: K
Pham, Tommy vs Freeland, Kyle: K
Murakami, Munetaka vs Freeland, Kyle: BB
Doyle, Brenton vs Freeland, Kyle: HR +2 runs (1-2)
Antonacci, Sam vs Freeland, Kyle: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Norby, Connor vs Kay, Anthony: K
Goodman, Hunter vs Kay, Anthony: OUT AIR
Carrigg, Cole vs Kay, Anthony: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Montgomery, Braden vs Freeland, Kyle: OUT GB
Montgomery, Colson vs Freeland, Kyle: K
Acuña, Luisangel vs Freeland, Kyle: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Karros, Kyle vs Kay, Anthony: 1B
Amador, Adael vs Kay, Anthony: 2B +1 run (2-2)
Johnston, Troy vs Kay, Anthony: OUT GB
Beck, Jordan vs Kay, Anthony: OUT AIR
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Kay, Anthony: K
— Bottom 5 —
Romo, Drew vs Freeland, Kyle: 1B
Grichuk, Randal vs Freeland, Kyle: BB
Pham, Tommy vs Freeland, Kyle: 1B
Murakami, Munetaka vs Freeland, Kyle: K
Doyle, Brenton vs Freeland, Kyle: HR +4 runs (2-6)
Antonacci, Sam vs Frasso, Nick: 1B
Montgomery, Braden vs Frasso, Nick: OUT AIR
Montgomery, Colson vs Frasso, Nick: BB
Acuña, Luisangel vs Frasso, Nick: 2B +1 run (2-7)
Romo, Drew vs Frasso, Nick: K
— Top 6 —
McCarthy, Jake vs Kay, Anthony: OUT GB
Norby, Connor vs Kay, Anthony: 1B
Goodman, Hunter vs Kay, Anthony: OUT AIR
Carrigg, Cole vs Kay, Anthony: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Grichuk, Randal vs Castaño, Blas: K
Pham, Tommy vs Castaño, Blas: K
Murakami, Munetaka vs Castaño, Blas: 2B
Doyle, Brenton vs Castaño, Blas: BB
Antonacci, Sam vs Castaño, Blas: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Karros, Kyle vs Kay, Anthony: K
Amador, Adael vs Kay, Anthony: OUT GB
Johnston, Troy vs Sims, Lucas: 1B
Beck, Jordan vs Sims, Lucas: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Montgomery, Braden vs Castaño, Blas: OUT GB
Montgomery, Colson vs Senzatela, Antonio: OUT AIR
Acuña, Luisangel vs Senzatela, Antonio: OUT GB
— Top 8 —
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Sims, Lucas: BB
McCarthy, Jake vs Sims, Lucas: K
Norby, Connor vs Davis, Tyler: K
Goodman, Hunter vs Davis, Tyler: 1B
Carrigg, Cole vs Davis, Tyler: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Romo, Drew vs Senzatela, Antonio: OUT GB
Grichuk, Randal vs Senzatela, Antonio: K
Pham, Tommy vs Brebbia, John: 1B
Murakami, Munetaka vs Brebbia, John: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Karros, Kyle vs Davis, Tyler: K
Amador, Adael vs Leasure, Jordan: K
Johnston, Troy vs Leasure, Jordan: OUT AIR