Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	194	32	42	9	3	.236	.294	.438	.732
2025	337	42	78	8	8	.251	.300	.389	.689
2026	383	36	80	7	10	.243	.342	.377	.719
3 Seasons	914	110	200	24	21	.244	.316	.395	.711

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

53

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

50

Defense4 metrics

45

Speed3 metrics

60

Plate skills10 metrics

60

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.325
xwOBA current pace	0.307
xwOBA rolling p50	0.314
Observed weight	64%

xwOBA

0.286 0.299 0.314 0.328 0.341

wOBA

0.316 0.331 0.347 0.363 0.378

ISO

0.120 0.136 0.154 0.172 0.188

K%

24.7% 25.9% 27.3% 28.7% 30.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%5.1%

54 -19 vs proj

Exit velocity87.4

45

Hard-hit%36.6%

42

xBA0.324

57

xSLG0.544

64

xwOBA0.307

55

BB%10.5%

75 +50 vs proj

Bat speed68.9

39

K%28.4%

22

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.0 · 1B

28

Arm Strength85.0 · 1B

32

Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B

80

Range Runs-1.6 · 1B

39

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.0 · 1B

62

SB Success Rate81.8% · 1B

54

Sprint Speed28.0 · 1B

65

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.5% · rebadged research

62

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7% · rebadged research

83

Correct Decisions70.4% · rebadged research

89

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106

78

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · borderline

10

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample

89

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample

65

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample

49

Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated

68

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated

9

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Connor Norby's production (77) outpaces the tools grade (72) by 5 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.347

xwOBA (deserved)0.307

Norby’s wOBA sits at 0.347, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.307 — a gap of 0.040, -1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 391 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
McLain, Matt CIN · R	0.80	Hard-hit rateBat speed	Player · Projection
Beavers, Dylan BAL · L	0.75	Isolated powerBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Lowe, Josh LAA · L	0.65	Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection
Busch, Michael CHC · L	0.64	Oppo ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-09-24	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	17	2026-09-26	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.224

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ SF0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, K
2026-05-20 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K, SB
2026-04-20 vs STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K
2026-04-17 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 15 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-15 @ ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, K, R

Age	26
Height	5' 10"
Weight	180 lb
Debut	2024-06-03

xwOBA Δ	-0.014
wOBA Δ	+0.026

Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ SF0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, K
2026-05-20 vs ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K, SB
2026-04-20 vs STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K
2026-04-17 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 15 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-15 @ ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2B, K, R

Connor Norby

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail