Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta

ATL 3, MIA 5. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

ATL 3, MIA 5

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate

Final
3 – 5final score
8total runs
50% → 100%MIA win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

Ritchie, JR vs Junk, Janson · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-09-27
ATL 49.6%MIA 50.4%
3.9 – 3.8mean score
7.71mean total
56%NRFI
11.5%extra innings
6.29 / 4.77starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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18

Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

ATL (gold) vs MIA (cyan)

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
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11

Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

ATL per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Dubón, Mauricio 4.7711.3210.077 1.8110.2820.6840.421
Albies, Ozzie 4.6571.1180.131 1.7530.3050.8080.487
Olson, Matt 4.5421.1320.221 2.1090.3721.1410.652
Riley, Austin 4.4380.9690.116 1.5330.3061.3970.461
Yastrzemski, Mike 4.3340.9790.125 1.590.3851.1110.483
Murphy, Sean 4.2290.8370.098 1.2970.3541.2160.386
Kim, Ha-Seong 4.1130.6970.048 0.9370.3521.0930.242
Hicklen, Brewer 3.9850.9460.067 1.3640.4191.150.341
Keirsey Jr., DaShawn 3.8780.920.096 1.4030.310.9470.429
Projected batting lines

MIA per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Conine, Griffin 4.5381.0190.222 1.9270.5321.4710.516
Sanoja, Javier 4.4261.1970.106 1.7970.3350.6040.427
Hernández, Heriberto 4.3230.8690.185 1.6360.5111.3390.528
Ramírez, Agustín 4.220.8940.092 1.3470.4911.1730.434
Pauley, Graham 4.1330.8260.108 1.3280.3561.1790.448
Ruiz, Esteury 4.0270.7980.095 1.2620.4121.3810.373
De Los Santos, Deyvison 3.9120.7940.096 1.2440.2921.0850.383
Serna, Jared 3.7890.7760.088 1.2020.3641.0590.357
Navarreto, Brian 3.660.7030.092 1.1210.31.1220.338
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
Dubón, Mauricio vs Junk, Janson: OUT AIR
Albies, Ozzie vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Olson, Matt vs Junk, Janson: K
Riley, Austin vs Junk, Janson: K
— Bottom 1 —
Conine, Griffin vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Sanoja, Javier vs Ritchie, JR: OUT GB
Hernández, Heriberto vs Ritchie, JR: K
— Top 2 —
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Murphy, Sean vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Junk, Janson: K
— Bottom 2 —
Ramírez, Agustín vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Pauley, Graham vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Ruiz, Esteury vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Ritchie, JR: K
Serna, Jared vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Hicklen, Brewer vs Junk, Janson: K
Keirsey Jr., DaShawn vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Dubón, Mauricio vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Albies, Ozzie vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Olson, Matt vs Junk, Janson: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Navarreto, Brian vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
Conine, Griffin vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
Sanoja, Javier vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Hernández, Heriberto vs Ritchie, JR: BB
Ramírez, Agustín vs Ritchie, JR: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Riley, Austin vs Junk, Janson: HR +1 run (1-0)
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Junk, Janson: 2B
Murphy, Sean vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Junk, Janson: OUT AIR
Hicklen, Brewer vs Junk, Janson: K
— Bottom 4 —
Pauley, Graham vs Ritchie, JR: BB
Ruiz, Esteury vs Ritchie, JR: 2B +1 run (1-1)
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
Serna, Jared vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
Navarreto, Brian vs Ritchie, JR: K
— Top 5 —
Keirsey Jr., DaShawn vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Dubón, Mauricio vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Albies, Ozzie vs Junk, Janson: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Conine, Griffin vs Ritchie, JR: K
Sanoja, Javier vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Hernández, Heriberto vs Ritchie, JR: BB
Ramírez, Agustín vs Ritchie, JR: HR +3 runs (1-4)
Pauley, Graham vs Ritchie, JR: OUT GB
Ruiz, Esteury vs Ritchie, JR: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Olson, Matt vs Junk, Janson: HR +1 run (2-4)
Riley, Austin vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Junk, Janson: BB
Murphy, Sean vs Kempner, William: OUT AIR
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Kempner, William: OUT GB
Hicklen, Brewer vs Kempner, William: 1B +1 run (3-4)
Keirsey Jr., DaShawn vs Kempner, William: K
— Bottom 6 —
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Ritchie, JR: K
Serna, Jared vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
Navarreto, Brian vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Dubón, Mauricio vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Albies, Ozzie vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
Olson, Matt vs Nardi, Andrew: K
— Bottom 7 —
Conine, Griffin vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
Sanoja, Javier vs Payamps, Joel: OUT GB
Hernández, Heriberto vs Iglesias, Raisel: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Riley, Austin vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Murphy, Sean vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Ramírez, Agustín vs Iglesias, Raisel: BB
Pauley, Graham vs Iglesias, Raisel: OUT AIR
Ruiz, Esteury vs Iglesias, Raisel: K
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Lee, Dylan: K
— Top 9 —
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Bender, Anthony: OUT AIR
Hicklen, Brewer vs Bender, Anthony: OUT AIR
Keirsey Jr., DaShawn vs Bender, Anthony: OUT AIR