Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
ATL 3, MIA 5. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
ATL 3, MIA 5
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
3 – 5final score
8total runs
50% → 100%MIA win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Ritchie, JR vs Junk, Janson · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
ATL 49.6%MIA 50.4%
3.9 – 3.8mean score
7.71mean total
56%NRFI
11.5%extra innings
6.29 / 4.77starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
ATL (gold) vs MIA (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
ATL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubón, Mauricio | 4.771 | 1.321 | 0.077 | 1.811 | 0.282 | 0.684 | 0.421 |
| Albies, Ozzie | 4.657 | 1.118 | 0.131 | 1.753 | 0.305 | 0.808 | 0.487 |
| Olson, Matt | 4.542 | 1.132 | 0.221 | 2.109 | 0.372 | 1.141 | 0.652 |
| Riley, Austin | 4.438 | 0.969 | 0.116 | 1.533 | 0.306 | 1.397 | 0.461 |
| Yastrzemski, Mike | 4.334 | 0.979 | 0.125 | 1.59 | 0.385 | 1.111 | 0.483 |
| Murphy, Sean | 4.229 | 0.837 | 0.098 | 1.297 | 0.354 | 1.216 | 0.386 |
| Kim, Ha-Seong | 4.113 | 0.697 | 0.048 | 0.937 | 0.352 | 1.093 | 0.242 |
| Hicklen, Brewer | 3.985 | 0.946 | 0.067 | 1.364 | 0.419 | 1.15 | 0.341 |
| Keirsey Jr., DaShawn | 3.878 | 0.92 | 0.096 | 1.403 | 0.31 | 0.947 | 0.429 |
Projected batting lines
MIA per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conine, Griffin | 4.538 | 1.019 | 0.222 | 1.927 | 0.532 | 1.471 | 0.516 |
| Sanoja, Javier | 4.426 | 1.197 | 0.106 | 1.797 | 0.335 | 0.604 | 0.427 |
| Hernández, Heriberto | 4.323 | 0.869 | 0.185 | 1.636 | 0.511 | 1.339 | 0.528 |
| Ramírez, Agustín | 4.22 | 0.894 | 0.092 | 1.347 | 0.491 | 1.173 | 0.434 |
| Pauley, Graham | 4.133 | 0.826 | 0.108 | 1.328 | 0.356 | 1.179 | 0.448 |
| Ruiz, Esteury | 4.027 | 0.798 | 0.095 | 1.262 | 0.412 | 1.381 | 0.373 |
| De Los Santos, Deyvison | 3.912 | 0.794 | 0.096 | 1.244 | 0.292 | 1.085 | 0.383 |
| Serna, Jared | 3.789 | 0.776 | 0.088 | 1.202 | 0.364 | 1.059 | 0.357 |
| Navarreto, Brian | 3.66 | 0.703 | 0.092 | 1.121 | 0.3 | 1.122 | 0.338 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Dubón, Mauricio vs Junk, Janson: OUT AIR
Albies, Ozzie vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Olson, Matt vs Junk, Janson: K
Riley, Austin vs Junk, Janson: K
— Bottom 1 —
Conine, Griffin vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Sanoja, Javier vs Ritchie, JR: OUT GB
Hernández, Heriberto vs Ritchie, JR: K
— Top 2 —
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Murphy, Sean vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Junk, Janson: K
— Bottom 2 —
Ramírez, Agustín vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Pauley, Graham vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Ruiz, Esteury vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Ritchie, JR: K
Serna, Jared vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Hicklen, Brewer vs Junk, Janson: K
Keirsey Jr., DaShawn vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Dubón, Mauricio vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Albies, Ozzie vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Olson, Matt vs Junk, Janson: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Navarreto, Brian vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
Conine, Griffin vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
Sanoja, Javier vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Hernández, Heriberto vs Ritchie, JR: BB
Ramírez, Agustín vs Ritchie, JR: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Riley, Austin vs Junk, Janson: HR +1 run (1-0)
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Junk, Janson: 2B
Murphy, Sean vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Junk, Janson: OUT AIR
Hicklen, Brewer vs Junk, Janson: K
— Bottom 4 —
Pauley, Graham vs Ritchie, JR: BB
Ruiz, Esteury vs Ritchie, JR: 2B +1 run (1-1)
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
Serna, Jared vs Ritchie, JR: OUT AIR
Navarreto, Brian vs Ritchie, JR: K
— Top 5 —
Keirsey Jr., DaShawn vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Dubón, Mauricio vs Junk, Janson: OUT GB
Albies, Ozzie vs Junk, Janson: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Conine, Griffin vs Ritchie, JR: K
Sanoja, Javier vs Ritchie, JR: 1B
Hernández, Heriberto vs Ritchie, JR: BB
Ramírez, Agustín vs Ritchie, JR: HR +3 runs (1-4)
Pauley, Graham vs Ritchie, JR: OUT GB
Ruiz, Esteury vs Ritchie, JR: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Olson, Matt vs Junk, Janson: HR +1 run (2-4)
Riley, Austin vs Junk, Janson: 1B
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Junk, Janson: BB
Murphy, Sean vs Kempner, William: OUT AIR
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Kempner, William: OUT GB
Hicklen, Brewer vs Kempner, William: 1B +1 run (3-4)
Keirsey Jr., DaShawn vs Kempner, William: K
— Bottom 6 —
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Ritchie, JR: K
Serna, Jared vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
Navarreto, Brian vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Dubón, Mauricio vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Albies, Ozzie vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
Olson, Matt vs Nardi, Andrew: K
— Bottom 7 —
Conine, Griffin vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
Sanoja, Javier vs Payamps, Joel: OUT GB
Hernández, Heriberto vs Iglesias, Raisel: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Riley, Austin vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Murphy, Sean vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Ramírez, Agustín vs Iglesias, Raisel: BB
Pauley, Graham vs Iglesias, Raisel: OUT AIR
Ruiz, Esteury vs Iglesias, Raisel: K
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Lee, Dylan: K
— Top 9 —
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Bender, Anthony: OUT AIR
Hicklen, Brewer vs Bender, Anthony: OUT AIR
Keirsey Jr., DaShawn vs Bender, Anthony: OUT AIR