Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 26 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 195 lb |
| Debut | 2025-05-30 |
Player profile / Miami Marlins
Heriberto Hernandez
LF · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 195 lb · Age 26
Club Miami Marlins
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 294 | 40 | 68 | 10 | 1 | .266 | .347 | .438 | .785 |
| 2026 | 505 | 51 | 102 | 25 | 13 | .228 | .313 | .442 | .755 |
| 2 Seasons | 799 | 91 | 170 | 35 | 14 | .241 | .325 | .440 | .765 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
89
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.348 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.340 |
| Observed weight | 70% |
xwOBA
0.316
0.327
0.340
0.352
0.364
wOBA
0.327
0.339
0.354
0.368
0.381
ISO
0.173
0.187
0.202
0.217
0.231
K%
23.8%
25.0%
26.2%
27.4%
28.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
86
+20 vs proj
Exit velocity91.6
92
Hard-hit%48.4%
89
+18 vs proj
xBA0.346
81
xSLG0.677
93
xwOBA0.348
91
+19 vs proj
BB%10.7%
77
+25 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
80
K%26.5%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.7 · LF
16
Arm Strength98.7 · LF
85
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
88
Range Runs1.9 · LF
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.9 · LF
18
SB Success Rate70.0% · LF
26
Sprint Speed28.3 · LF
75
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.1% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.5% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions71.4% · rebadged research
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
93
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.344 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.340 · validated
82
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
196 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.030 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Hernandez’s wOBA sits at 0.354, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.348 — a gap of 0.006, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 514 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R | 0.76 | Isolated powerBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Carroll, Corbin AZ · L | 0.70 | Ground-ball rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Lowe, Brandon PIT · L | 0.66 | Barrel rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Happ, Ian CHC · L | 0.65 | Ground-ball rateChase rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-09-06 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.324 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ CIN0 HR | 3 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | BB, K, 3 RBI |
| 2026-05-20 vs ATL0 HR | 1 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | 2 K, RBI |
| 2026-04-17 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 | 2 BB, CS |
| 2026-04-15 @ ATL0 HR | 1 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 3 K, RBI |
| 2026-04-13 @ ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | K, R, SB |