Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-27 beta
TB 3, PHI 7. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
TB 3, PHI 7
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:52Z UTC · back to slate
3 – 7final score
10total runs
54% → 100%PHI win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Martinez, Nick vs Wheeler, Zack · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
TB 46.4%PHI 53.6%
4.11 – 4.08mean score
8.2mean total
53%NRFI
10.9%extra innings
4.14 / 6.99starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
TB (gold) vs PHI (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
TB per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mesa Jr., Victor | 4.749 | 1.086 | 0.202 | 1.978 | 0.373 | 1.41 | 0.509 |
| Aranda, Jonathan | 4.635 | 1.058 | 0.143 | 1.701 | 0.415 | 1.557 | 0.44 |
| Caminero, Junior | 4.532 | 1.128 | 0.248 | 2.18 | 0.448 | 1.206 | 0.661 |
| Hicks, Liam | 4.436 | 1.11 | 0.132 | 1.728 | 0.404 | 0.784 | 0.503 |
| Palacios, Richie | 4.335 | 0.904 | 0.099 | 1.385 | 0.449 | 1.113 | 0.417 |
| DeLuca, Jonny | 4.231 | 1.031 | 0.104 | 1.572 | 0.226 | 1.262 | 0.462 |
| Mullins, Cedric | 4.115 | 0.79 | 0.119 | 1.301 | 0.328 | 1.163 | 0.402 |
| Fortes, Nick | 3.988 | 0.953 | 0.085 | 1.391 | 0.2 | 0.906 | 0.387 |
| Mateo, Jorge | 3.872 | 0.766 | 0.088 | 1.183 | 0.243 | 1.443 | 0.332 |
Projected batting lines
PHI per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner, Trea | 4.522 | 1.087 | 0.126 | 1.69 | 0.242 | 0.907 | 0.416 |
| Schwarber, Kyle | 4.412 | 1.053 | 0.285 | 2.189 | 0.426 | 1.256 | 0.632 |
| Harper, Bryce | 4.307 | 1.118 | 0.165 | 1.915 | 0.41 | 0.878 | 0.534 |
| Stott, Bryson | 4.209 | 1.067 | 0.081 | 1.551 | 0.284 | 0.699 | 0.432 |
| Bohm, Alec | 4.111 | 1.039 | 0.099 | 1.539 | 0.215 | 0.579 | 0.469 |
| Marsh, Brandon | 4.001 | 1.047 | 0.123 | 1.64 | 0.19 | 0.929 | 0.48 |
| Sosa, Edmundo | 3.887 | 0.971 | 0.114 | 1.538 | 0.15 | 0.806 | 0.434 |
| Crawford, Justin | 3.772 | 0.985 | 0.043 | 1.298 | 0.198 | 0.697 | 0.33 |
| Realmuto, J.T. | 3.647 | 0.777 | 0.09 | 1.192 | 0.224 | 0.78 | 0.355 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
Aranda, Jonathan vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Caminero, Junior vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Turner, Trea vs Martinez, Nick: OUT AIR
Schwarber, Kyle vs Martinez, Nick: 1B
Harper, Bryce vs Martinez, Nick: K
Stott, Bryson vs Martinez, Nick: K
— Top 2 —
Hicks, Liam vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B
Palacios, Richie vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B
DeLuca, Jonny vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Mullins, Cedric vs Wheeler, Zack: 2B +2 runs (2-0)
Fortes, Nick vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Mateo, Jorge vs Wheeler, Zack: K
— Bottom 2 —
Bohm, Alec vs Martinez, Nick: OUT AIR
Marsh, Brandon vs Martinez, Nick: K
Sosa, Edmundo vs Martinez, Nick: 1B
Crawford, Justin vs Martinez, Nick: K
— Top 3 —
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Aranda, Jonathan vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Caminero, Junior vs Wheeler, Zack: BB
Hicks, Liam vs Wheeler, Zack: HR +2 runs (4-0)
Palacios, Richie vs Wheeler, Zack: K
— Bottom 3 —
Realmuto, J.T. vs Martinez, Nick: 1B
Turner, Trea vs Martinez, Nick: K
Schwarber, Kyle vs Martinez, Nick: K
Harper, Bryce vs Martinez, Nick: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
DeLuca, Jonny vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Mullins, Cedric vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Fortes, Nick vs Wheeler, Zack: BB
Mateo, Jorge vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B +1 run (5-0)
Aranda, Jonathan vs Alvarado, José: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Stott, Bryson vs Martinez, Nick: OUT AIR
Bohm, Alec vs Martinez, Nick: OUT AIR
Marsh, Brandon vs Martinez, Nick: HR +1 run (5-1)
Sosa, Edmundo vs Martinez, Nick: 1B
— Top 5 —
Caminero, Junior vs Alvarado, José: BB
Hicks, Liam vs Alvarado, José: K
Palacios, Richie vs Alvarado, José: OUT AIR
DeLuca, Jonny vs Alvarado, José: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Crawford, Justin vs Martinez, Nick: OUT GB
Realmuto, J.T. vs Martinez, Nick: OUT GB
Turner, Trea vs Martinez, Nick: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Mullins, Cedric vs Duran, Jhoan: OUT AIR
Fortes, Nick vs Duran, Jhoan: 1B
Mateo, Jorge vs Duran, Jhoan: 1B
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Duran, Jhoan: K
Aranda, Jonathan vs Banks, Tanner: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Schwarber, Kyle vs Martinez, Nick: K
Harper, Bryce vs Martinez, Nick: HR +1 run (5-2)
Stott, Bryson vs Martinez, Nick: OUT AIR
Bohm, Alec vs Martinez, Nick: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Caminero, Junior vs Banks, Tanner: OUT GB
Hicks, Liam vs Banks, Tanner: 1B
Palacios, Richie vs Banks, Tanner: 2B
DeLuca, Jonny vs Banks, Tanner: OUT AIR
Mullins, Cedric vs McFarlane, Alex: K
— Bottom 7 —
Marsh, Brandon vs Cleavinger, Garrett: K
Sosa, Edmundo vs Cleavinger, Garrett: K
Crawford, Justin vs Cleavinger, Garrett: OUT GB
— Top 8 —
Fortes, Nick vs McFarlane, Alex: OUT GB
Mateo, Jorge vs McFarlane, Alex: K
Mesa Jr., Victor vs McFarlane, Alex: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Realmuto, J.T. vs Cleavinger, Garrett: OUT AIR
Turner, Trea vs Johnson, Ty: K
Schwarber, Kyle vs Johnson, Ty: K
— Top 9 —
Aranda, Jonathan vs McFarlane, Alex: HR +1 run (6-2)
Caminero, Junior vs McFarlane, Alex: OUT AIR
Hicks, Liam vs Bowlan, Jonathan: OUT AIR
Palacios, Richie vs Bowlan, Jonathan: OUT GB
— Bottom 9 —
Harper, Bryce vs Johnson, Ty: OUT AIR
Stott, Bryson vs Johnson, Ty: 1B
Bohm, Alec vs Grove, Michael: OUT GB